There was more of the same in the market today: economic news was terrible, but the market rallied yet again. Housing prices? DOWN. Consumer confidence? DOWN. European debt? DOWNgraded again. Japanese nuclear debris? Getting worse. Dow Industrials? Rallied over +100 points from the low.
The S&P Case-Shiller HPI (home price index) was much worse than anticipated again. From the report we read “Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now. These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing.”
The prior consumer confidence level came in at 72.0. Today’s data point crashed to 63.4. Bloomberg said the following “A surge in inflation expectations, to 6.7 percent one-year out from February's 5.6 percent, headlines a disappointing Conference Board report for March that confirms significant deterioration underway in consumer confidence. High food and especially high gas prices are behind the heightened inflation expectations which are eroding consumer confidence in their income. Those seeing their income falling over the next six months now equal those seeing an increase, a shift lower from three prior months when optimists had outnumbered pessimists. The assessment of the jobs market is also deteriorating in what contrasts with this month's tangible improvement in jobless claims. Those saying jobs are currently hard to get rose two tenths to 44.6 percent. For the six-month view on jobs, pessimists are once again outnumbering optimists.”
But who needs a job, or confidence, or low prices, or a rising income, or a steady to improving housing market? After all, AAPL is going up. “Let them eat iPads” says the Fed. With the final release of the consumer confidence data, the stock market exploded higher and never looked back.
Congress is taking care of the housing market though, with new regulation – right? A provision of the Dodd-Frank Act that was supposed to be tough on fraudulent banksters is known as “skin-in-the-game.” This provision would force banksters to keep 5%, yes 5-whole-percent, on their books. The reasoning is that the banksters would be less inclined to underwrite garbage loans, which would keep the overall housing market healthy.
The S&P Case-Shiller HPI (home price index) was much worse than anticipated again. From the report we read “Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now. These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing.”
The prior consumer confidence level came in at 72.0. Today’s data point crashed to 63.4. Bloomberg said the following “A surge in inflation expectations, to 6.7 percent one-year out from February's 5.6 percent, headlines a disappointing Conference Board report for March that confirms significant deterioration underway in consumer confidence. High food and especially high gas prices are behind the heightened inflation expectations which are eroding consumer confidence in their income. Those seeing their income falling over the next six months now equal those seeing an increase, a shift lower from three prior months when optimists had outnumbered pessimists. The assessment of the jobs market is also deteriorating in what contrasts with this month's tangible improvement in jobless claims. Those saying jobs are currently hard to get rose two tenths to 44.6 percent. For the six-month view on jobs, pessimists are once again outnumbering optimists.”
But who needs a job, or confidence, or low prices, or a rising income, or a steady to improving housing market? After all, AAPL is going up. “Let them eat iPads” says the Fed. With the final release of the consumer confidence data, the stock market exploded higher and never looked back.
Congress is taking care of the housing market though, with new regulation – right? A provision of the Dodd-Frank Act that was supposed to be tough on fraudulent banksters is known as “skin-in-the-game.” This provision would force banksters to keep 5%, yes 5-whole-percent, on their books. The reasoning is that the banksters would be less inclined to underwrite garbage loans, which would keep the overall housing market healthy.
Ah yes, this “sounds” wonderful, until you hear about the “exemptions.” Similar to the Obamacare exemptions that relieve hundreds of thousands of campaign contributors (read: unions http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/2011/01/unions-make-40-percent-employees-exempted-obamacare) the banking cabal was easily able to keep Hope & Change at bay in favor of business as usual.
According to MarketWatch who obtained this provision before anyone else “…loans sold to mortgage-refinance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would carry no risk-retention requirement as long as the mortgage giants remained in government conservatorship. Fannie and Freddie were both taken under conservatorship in September 2008, at the height of the financial crisis.
”These loans wouldn’t have to meet new strict underwriting standards for exemption set out in the proposal, but they must already meet underwriting standards that Fannie and Freddie generally require. Roughly 90% of all new loans today are sold to Fannie and Freddie.”
This is so ludicrous you might think I’m pulling your leg, but I assure you I am not. The only purpose to have a “skin-in-game” provision that is completely gutted is for the purpose of lying. Politicians on both sides of the isle will tell their moronic, non-thinking, sound-bite loving, sophistry-craving bases that he “got tough on banks;” that she “voted to make banks have skin-in-the-game,” all the while never mentioning the truth…and gladly accepting bribes, err, campaign contributions from the same banksters.
In essence, nothing will change. Already 90% of loans are sold to Fannie & Freddie so 90% of all would-be regulatory teeth have been extracted. Given this handout to the banking cabal you can bet 100% of all loans will soon be sold to Fannie & Freddie, which means 100% of all risk, will be carried by the taxpayer.
Question: Will this provision increase competition for mortgages or decrease it? Will this provision help the taxpayer get out from under the crushing weight & debt burden of FNM & FRE – or pin him there? Sadly, you know the answers.
Until the nonsensical sound bites of “drill baby drill” on the right, and “hope & change” on the left are scorned for the claptrap that they are and details are demanded – this sort of garbage will continue in Washington.
But hey – no worries, equities rallied again. “Let them eat iPads!”
Trade Date: 3/29/11
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