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Thursday, March 31, 2011

Ceiling

 
 

Certainly you have all heard of the US “debt ceiling.”  This self-imposed debt “ceiling” is the debt level that cannot be breached; it is a ceiling after all.  Yeahhhhh, riiiight.  Since the scoundrels in Congress devised the so-called “debt ceiling,” it can be raised.  Indeed, the ceiling has been habitually elevated because Congress is a debt junkie.  
 
The out of control profligate spending by both parties has gone unchecked since the late 1970’s and because of this, both sides of the political isle believe it will never happen again.  The bond vigilantes are dead and buried; nobody is holding Congress accountable.
 
Oh, but now that the debt level is at that ceiling it’s “scary time” again.  Tax-Cheatin-Timmy, Zimbabwe-Ben Bernanke, and the entire bankster mafia is warning of dire consequences if they aren’t allowed to treat the US dollar like a blank checkbook and a roll of toilet paper.
 
ZeroHedge picks it up here…
 
First, the irrelevant news:

Today's $29 billion 7 Year auction just closed at a yield of 2.895%, the highest since April 2010, just the time when QE1 was ending and everyone was certain there would be no follow through monetization. The Bid to Cover was 2.79, weaker compared to recent auctions, and 2 bps wider of the When Issued, implying the auction was not all that hot. Directs took down 8.76%, in line with the last year average, Indirects accounts for 49.41%, or the lowest foreign take down since November 2010, while PDs bought 41.83% of the auction. Altogether a weak auction but it's not like the PDs would let it fail especially not with QB9 becoming the next "flip back to the Fed" bond for the PD community
 
Next, the relevant news:

Now bear with us for a second: the most recently disclosed total debt was 14,211,567,662,931.23 as of March 28. This excludes the settlement of all of this week's auctions which amount to $35 + $35 + $29 billion (including today) or $99 billion. Adding the two amounts (equate) to $14,310,567,662,931.23. As a reminder the debt ceiling is $14,294,000,000,000.00. In other words, the total US debt just passed the debt limit - break out the Champagne!
Granted there is a buffer of $52.2 billion between the total debt and the debt actually subject to the ceiling, meaning that America is not in default, yet.
 
Therefore, the total debt subject to the limit assuming full settlement right now is $14,258,341,662,931, which means the US is now $35.7 billion away from a bona fide breach of the debt ceiling. Yes, there are some caveats, and it is possible that there will be an accelerated redemption of bills over the next few days, pushing the total debt slightly lower, but readers get the idea. Complicating things, the SFP unwind is complete with just $5 billion in 56 Day Cash Management Bills on the books, and no longer a buffer of debt ceiling extension.

Which brings up the question: with a government shut down looming any minute, shouldn't Congress be tackling the issue of what happens when the US enter technical default some time in the second week of April when the next battery of approximately $67 billion in new bonds are issued, which also happens to be just as tax rebate (and thus outflow) season peaks?
 
But don’t worry folks; the geniuses in Congress will, after treating it like a political football, find a way to kick the can down the road and blame each other for what ever they like that week with each constituency group swallowing the BS hook-line-and-sinker.
 
And one more thing: there will never – EVER – be financial consequences to all of this spending.  Certainly that’s Congress’s game plan because that’s how they are acting. 
 
Lucky us.
 


 
Trade Date: 3/30/11
E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):
 

  1. No “Secrets” trades filled today.
  2.  Algorithm positions (5)
  3.  “Reading the Tape” positions (1) …combined Secret’s, Algo, & “Reading the Tape” total… +1.50


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