Friday’s real story was the bond market. With rollover still affecting the ES and the Fed covering all risks across the world, the S&P futures have been dead. The real action is currently in the bond market as prices are crushed, and rates rise.
Despite Friday’s most recent 10-YR Note slide and the increasing mortgage rates, the equity market continues its slow march higher. Mortgage rates are at a five month high, so the whole “QE2 will bring rates lower” meme just isn’t working. To be clear, QE2 is working just fine for the banksters on Fraud Street that are making tens of $billions from it. Is it working for Main Street? Of course not, but that was never the intention of QE1, POMO, or QE2.
From Bloomberg we read “This is a very violent move we had this week,” said Richard Saperstein, managing director at Treasury Partners in New York, which oversees $10 billion in assets. “I think we’re going to have a very volatile bond cycle here over the next two years.”
"Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend," Gross wrote in monthly investment outlook on Pimco’s website on Oct. 27. "It is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. It raises bond prices to create the illusion of high annual returns, but ultimately it reaches a dead end where those prices can no longer go up."
So, just how bad was the bond slide?
Tax-exempt bond funds had their worst monthly returns of 2010 in November.
The poor returns are accelerating in December.
Vanguard’s Inflation-Protected Securities fund dropped 3.9%.
Pimco’s Total Return fund lost $7.5 billion in just 30-days. It is said that Pimco clients are withdrawing money for the first time in over two years.
The Federal Reserve has been paying top-dollar for bonds in its POMO and QE2 operations – being front-run by the primary dealers all the way. The slide has resulted in a swift loss of $2.4 billion for the Fed (excuse me, tax payers) and a resulting additional $2.4 billion profit for the primary dealers. Moreover, given the size of the Fed’s Treasury holdings, a 1% rise in interest rates it is estimated, will cost the Fed (read: us) a $150 billion loss.
If the Treasury slide continues, bond investors are sure to liquidate and could very well pile into equities. Maybe this is what Fraud Street is waiting for: the retail investor to create a blow off top so it can unload on them. .
Despite Friday’s most recent 10-YR Note slide and the increasing mortgage rates, the equity market continues its slow march higher. Mortgage rates are at a five month high, so the whole “QE2 will bring rates lower” meme just isn’t working. To be clear, QE2 is working just fine for the banksters on Fraud Street that are making tens of $billions from it. Is it working for Main Street? Of course not, but that was never the intention of QE1, POMO, or QE2.
From Bloomberg we read “This is a very violent move we had this week,” said Richard Saperstein, managing director at Treasury Partners in New York, which oversees $10 billion in assets. “I think we’re going to have a very volatile bond cycle here over the next two years.”
"Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend," Gross wrote in monthly investment outlook on Pimco’s website on Oct. 27. "It is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. It raises bond prices to create the illusion of high annual returns, but ultimately it reaches a dead end where those prices can no longer go up."
So, just how bad was the bond slide?
Tax-exempt bond funds had their worst monthly returns of 2010 in November.
The poor returns are accelerating in December.
Vanguard’s Inflation-Protected Securities fund dropped 3.9%.
Pimco’s Total Return fund lost $7.5 billion in just 30-days. It is said that Pimco clients are withdrawing money for the first time in over two years.
The Federal Reserve has been paying top-dollar for bonds in its POMO and QE2 operations – being front-run by the primary dealers all the way. The slide has resulted in a swift loss of $2.4 billion for the Fed (excuse me, tax payers) and a resulting additional $2.4 billion profit for the primary dealers. Moreover, given the size of the Fed’s Treasury holdings, a 1% rise in interest rates it is estimated, will cost the Fed (read: us) a $150 billion loss.
If the Treasury slide continues, bond investors are sure to liquidate and could very well pile into equities. Maybe this is what Fraud Street is waiting for: the retail investor to create a blow off top so it can unload on them. .
Trade Date: 12/10/10
E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):
E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):
- No “Secrets” trades filled today.
- Algorithm positions (2)
- “Reading the Tape” positions (0) …combined Secret’s, Algo, & “Reading the Tape” total… -0.50
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