A short time ago I reprinted a partial interview of Professor Steve Keen that was rather interesting. I guess I like him because he believes most (all?) Keynesian economists of today are idiots. Another question put to Professor Keen was…What should we (governments, corporations, and individuals) be doing right now to restore fiscal “soundness”?
Steve: This is a tricky one for a very simple reason: if my preferred remedies were enacted now, they would be blamed for causing an ensuing crisis, when in fact all they would do is make the existing crisis more obvious. I make the analogy between my situation and that of a doctor who has as a patient a comatose mountaineer who climbed too high without sufficient insulation and now has gangrene. If you operate before he regains consciousness, he might only lose a foot, but he’ll blame you for making him a cripple. If you wait till he regains consciousness and sees what the alternative might be, he’ll thank you for saving his life when you remove his leg.
America in particular—but also much of the OECD—has substituted essentially unproductive Ponzi speculation for real productivity growth in the last 4 decades, which the rising debt bubble has obscured as it simultaneously allowed Americans to live the high life by buying goods produced elsewhere using borrowed money. There’s no way to come to terms with that without suffering a substantial fall in actual incomes. I’d prefer to come to terms with these realities rapidly rather than slowly, but the political reality is, as Winston Churchill once put it, that “The United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative”. So I’m proposing changes that I know are only feasible after several more years of failed conventional policies have been tried. I also realize that most of these ideas are well outside not just the mainstream, but many of the positions put by non-mainstream critics as well.
The basic list is:
• Abolish Ponzi debts, which are those that have been used primarily to drive up asset prices rather than finance investment or consumption. This includes most shadow banking system debt (about 100% of GDP), much of the runup in household debt since 1985 (when it was about 50% of GDP), and probably most of the 30% increase in business debt beyond the 50% level that applied in the 1970s.
• Since the first move would bankrupt the financial sector (or rather convert it’s state of de facto bankruptcy after the crisis—without the government bailouts—into de jure bankruptcy) banks should be put into temporary nationally administered receivership, during which time the flow of working capital to firms would be maintained.
• Reform financial assets to prevent future debt-funded Ponzi bubbles. As I explain in the Roving Cavaliers of Credit, I don’t think it’s possible to stop banks wanting to lend too much money, so I’d rather reduce the attractiveness of debt for Ponzi speculation itself by making it much less likely that profits could be made from leveraged speculation.
• Finance infrastructural development with fiat-money financed government deficit spending as recommended by the American Monetary Institute. I don’t accept the position put by so-called Chartalist economists that government spending can overcome any recession, but we live in a mixed credit-fiat money economy, and just as private sector money should grow when the economy grows, so should fiat money. The failure of the government to do this under the influence of Friedmanite ideas about money was a contributing factor in the explosion of debt-financed money and the financial crisis. It caused a rundown in the quality of US infrastructure, and I defy anyone to argue that government spending could be any more wasteful than what the private sector did with its monetary growth. Especially in a period where private investment is likely to be subdued, there’s a good reason for government spending on infrastructure to lead the way to revived expectations.
• Since the first move would bankrupt the financial sector (or rather convert it’s state of de facto bankruptcy after the crisis—without the government bailouts—into de jure bankruptcy) banks should be put into temporary nationally administered receivership, during which time the flow of working capital to firms would be maintained.
• Reform financial assets to prevent future debt-funded Ponzi bubbles. As I explain in the Roving Cavaliers of Credit, I don’t think it’s possible to stop banks wanting to lend too much money, so I’d rather reduce the attractiveness of debt for Ponzi speculation itself by making it much less likely that profits could be made from leveraged speculation.
• Finance infrastructural development with fiat-money financed government deficit spending as recommended by the American Monetary Institute. I don’t accept the position put by so-called Chartalist economists that government spending can overcome any recession, but we live in a mixed credit-fiat money economy, and just as private sector money should grow when the economy grows, so should fiat money. The failure of the government to do this under the influence of Friedmanite ideas about money was a contributing factor in the explosion of debt-financed money and the financial crisis. It caused a rundown in the quality of US infrastructure, and I defy anyone to argue that government spending could be any more wasteful than what the private sector did with its monetary growth. Especially in a period where private investment is likely to be subdued, there’s a good reason for government spending on infrastructure to lead the way to revived expectations.
Trade Date: 11/17/10
E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):
E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):
- OTF buy @ 10:07am at 1178.00 = +1.00 (1 lot)
- Algorithm positions (8)
- “Reading the Tape” positions (2) combined Secret’s, Algo, & “Reading the Tape” total… +10.00
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