Second Half Growth?

by Larry Levin

Many analysts are claiming there will be a miraculous growth in the US economy as measured by GDP but they seem to forget that many States are in major financial trouble, while simultaneously the federal government is slowing its mad spending.

Bloomberg discusses the full article here...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-25/states-of-crisis-widen-as-46-governments-in-u-s-face-greek-style-deficits.html

Californians don’t see much evidence that the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression is coming to an end.

Unemployment was 12.4 percent in May, 2.7 percentage points higher than the national rate. Lawmakers gridlocked over how to close a $19 billion budget gap are weighing the termination of the main welfare program for 1.3 million poor families or borrowing more than $9 billion in the bond market. California, tied with Illinois for the lowest credit rating of any state, is diverting a rising portion of tax revenue to service debt, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its August issue.

Far from rebounding, the Golden State, with a $1.8 trillion economy that’s larger than Russia’s, is sinking deeper into its financial funk. And it’s not alone.

Even as the U.S. appears to be on the mend -- gross domestic product has climbed three straight quarters -- finances in Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and other states show few signs of improvement. Forty-six states face budget shortfalls that add up to $112 billion for the fiscal year ending next June, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington research institution. State spending is 12 percent of U.S. GDP.

“States are going to have to cut back spending and raise taxes the same way Greece and Spain are,” says Dean Baker, co- director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. “That runs counter to stimulating the economy and will put a big damper on the recovery in the latter half of this year.”

State budget woes are a worsening drag on growth as the federal government tries to wean the economy from two years of extraordinary support. By Jan. 1, funds from the $787 billion federal stimulus bill will dry up. That money from Washington has helped cushion state budgets as tax revenue has plunged.

State leaders won’t be able to ride out this cycle the way they have in the past. The budget holes are too large. For the first time since 1962, sales and income tax revenue fell for five straight quarters, through December 2009, according to the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York at Albany.

Lawmakers need to overhaul tax policy, underfunded public pensions and entitlement spending programs such as Medicaid if they want to establish long-term plans that will foster growth, says former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman.

“States don’t have a choice anymore,” Whitman says. “These problems are going to require major surgery.”

On May 20, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie vetoed a Democratic bill that would have raised income taxes for residents earning at least $1 million a year to help close an $11 billion deficit. Christie, a Republican, wants to cut spending for school districts and cap property tax increases.

“At some point, the people’s ability to pay runs out,” Christie said in a speech in New York on May 25.

Governor Christie's comment reminds me of one from Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”




Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 6/25/10

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) VA buy @ 8:35am at 1070.00 = -.25 & -.25 (2 lots)

2) Algorithm positions (15)

3) “Reading the Tape” positions (4)…combined Secret’s, Algo, & “Reading the Tape” total… -8.50



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