Knee Jerk Reaction

by Larry Levin

It looks as if Sunday evening's news of China was more of a knee-jerk reaction than a real move. The Dow traded 200-points off of its high and closed down marginally, while the S&P futures suffered a similar swoon to close near unchanged. When folks considered the news it didn't seem all that great. Consider that if China increases all its currency then everything that we buy from China will be more expensive - and isn't everything in WalMart from China? Moreover, if China has less US dollars to invest via the currency exchange rate chnage, wouldn't that equate to less support in the US Treasury market, thus higher interest rates? Yes sir, the gap open was a "knee-jerk" reaction indeed.

From Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-21/stocks-commodities-surge-after-china-signals-end-to-peg-dollar-weakens.html

U.S. stocks fell, slowing a global rally, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index failed to remain above levels watched by traders and early optimism about China’s plan to revalue its currency faded in the last hour. Commodities pared gains and Treasuries trimmed losses.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.4 percent to 1,113.21 at 4 p.m. in New York after jumping as much as 1.2 percent in the first hour. The Reuters/Jefferies Index of commodities trimmed a 1.6 percent rally to less than 0.3 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 2 basis points to 3.25 percent after surging as much as 8 basis points. The losses in U.S. stocks weren’t enough to erase a gain in the MSCI World Index, with the gauge of 24 developed markets rising for a 10th day, the longest streak in 11 months.

Retailers had the steepest decline among 24 groups in the S&P 500, losing 1.7 percent collectively, amid concern a stronger Chinese currency will boost the cost of importing goods from the country. U.S. equities extended losses as the S&P 500 failed to remain above a level marking a recovery of 50 percent of its bear-market plunge from a 2007 record and remained below its average levels over the past 50 and 100 days.

“The announcement out of China elicited an emotional response from the market,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Investments in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees $63 billion. “A closer look at the announcement suggests China’s approach is very gradual and it is continuing at its own pace. It’s a less dramatic move when looked at more closely.”




Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 6/21/10

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) No "Secrets" trades filled today.

2) Algorithm positions (5)

3) “Reading the Tape” positions (15) combined Secret’s, Algo, & “Reading the Tape” total… +4.25



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