It is fascinating to me that USD/Yen (dollar up, yen down) hit its most recent rally peak at 94.80 on April 5 – two weeks ago – and looks like it completed a correction at yesterday’s low of 91.60. What is so fascinating about? In the financial world we currently find ourselves, equity weakness (i.e., certainly the type that was triggered last Friday by GS) and fear of the unknown still attracts money into yen (from dollars), which occurred only last Friday. The USD was nearly finished with its correction by then, which leads me to believe that the USD/Yen relationship is much less tied to the “everything is the same directional trade” syndrome, and increasingly is separating itself into a “buy dollars vs. sell yen” accumulation on dips position for fund managers. Let’s notice that the most recent “dip” held support right at its confluent 50 and 200 EMAs, from where USD/Yen pivoted to the upside with power. Based on the series of higher-highs and higher-lows carved out since last November, USD/Yen should be heading for a test of the April 5 high at 94.80, which if hurled should trigger upside follow-through to 97.00 next. Only a break of 91.60 will wreck the developing base-like pattern. The ETF we play to take advantage of this trend is the UltraShort Yen ProShares (NYSE: YCS).
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