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Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Morning Market Update


Economic Uncertainty Persists

Stocks are lower in early action amid a lack of enthusiasm over the debt ceiling deal, which passed the House in a vote of 269-161, mixed corporate profit results and after a report showed that consumer spending fell for the first time in almost two years. Pfizer is heading the continuing earnings parade, posting profits a penny ahead of estimates, but faltering on the revenue side, while Duke Energy and Coach bested the Street's expectations, but Archers Daniels Midland handily missed forecasts. Stocks in Asia suffered amid the downtrodden sentiment following yesterday's dismal manufacturing report in the US, while markets in Europe are lower as well, as the region's debt woes are back at the forefront and adding to the soured mood toward the global economic recovery. Treasuries are higher to start the day following the spending report, which also showed personal income rose less than expected.

As of 8:55 a.m. ET, the September S&P 500 Index Globex future is 10 points below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 Index is 14 points below fair value, and the DJIA is 92 points below fair value. WTI crude oil is $0.57 lower at $94.37 per barrel, while the Bloomberg gold spot price is up $17.97 at $1,637.35 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index-a comparison of the US dollar to six major world currencies-is 0.3% higher at 74.55.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE $19) posted 2Q profits ex-items of $0.60 per share, a penny above what the Street was expecting, on a 0.9% decline in revenues to $16.98 billion that fell short of estimates. The world's largest drugmaker, per Bloomberg, said sales of Lipitor topped $2.59 billion, while sales of its arthritis treatment, Enbrel, saw 13% growth for the quarter and its pain pill, Lyrica, gained 19%. PFE reiterated its full-year profit forecast of $2.16-2.26 per share, while also maintaining its 2012 forecast, the first year in which it will have generic competition to its flagship Lipitor after losing patent protection for the drug in November.

Duke Energy Corp. (DUK $19) reported an adjusted 2Q profit of $0.33 per share, after reporting a loss in the same period a year ago, ahead of the $0.31 consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Reuters. The better-than-expected results came despite weaker demand from residential customers, as it saw an increase in demand for industrial power and higher sales in Brazil. DUK is in the midst of a $13.7 billion all-stock acquisition of Progress Energy Inc. (PGN $47) which receives a shareholder vote on August 23.

Luxury handbag and luggage maker Coach Inc. (COH $65) achieved fiscal 4Q EPS of $0.68, above the $0.65 that analysts were forecasting, after warning in mid-March that quarterly results would suffer as a result of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Revenues for the quarter rose 8.4% year-over-year (y/y) to $1.03 billion, ahead of the $1.01 billion expected by the Street, as direct-to-customer sales gained 18% y/y on a comparable basis, which excludes an extra week last year, and same-store sales-sales at stores open at least a year-rose 10.1% y/y.

Archers Daniels Midland Co. (ADM $31) reported fiscal 4Q earnings of $0.58 per share, well short of the $0.85 Reuters estimate, despite a 45% surge in revenues to $22.87 billion, which was above the forecasts of analysts which called for sales of $20.43 billion. The agriculture firm cited an increase in tax expenses and significantly higher commodity costs in its corn-processing unit.

Personal spending drops, income only inches higher 

 
Personal income increased 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) in June, just shy of expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, which called for a 0.2% rise, and May's 0.3% increase was revised to a 0.2% gain. Also, personal spending dropped 0.2% m/m in June, the first time in nearly two years, compared to expectations of a 0.1% advance, and May's unchanged reading was revised to a 0.1% increase. The savings rate climbed to 5.4% in June, the highest rate since September, from 5.0% in May.

Also, the PCE Price Index, which is released with the income and spending data, was up 2.6% year-over-year (y/y) in June, matching expectations, after May's 2.5% increase was revised to a 2.6% increase. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.1% m/m, below forecasts of a 0.2% increase, while y/y, core prices moved 1.3% higher, versus the 1.4% gain that was expected.

Treasuries are higher in morning action following the data, with the yield on the 2-year note down 2 bps to 0.35%, the yield on the 10-year note decreasing 4 bp to 2.70%, and the 30-year bond rate 3 bps lower at 4.05%.

Europe hungover from US data, persistent debt concerns 

 
European equities are adding to yesterday's losses in afternoon action, courtesy of Monday's US manufacturing report, while concerns over the region's debt problems are back on the agenda. Spreads on Italian and Spanish debt versus their German counterpart, known as the bund, rose to record highs, with the yield on 10-year notes in Italy surging 21 basis points (bps) to 6.21%, while similar maturities on Spanish debt jumped to 6.46%, the highest levels since 1997. Italian news agency Ansa is reporting that the country's Financial Stability Committee will meet today to discuss the rise in yields, while also saying Finance Minister Tremonti is set to meet with officials at the nation's central bank. Banks are leading the decline overseas amid the debt woes, but Barclays Plc (BCS $14) is bucking the trend after the UK's largest bank said it will eliminate up to 3,000 jobs in an effort to improve profits and cut costs.

Economic news across the pond was light, with a read on the UK's PMI Construction Index showing a slight downtick, but above what economists were expecting, while prices at the wholesale level in the eurozone were flat on a month-over-month basis, and mostly inline with forecasts.

The UK FTSE 100 Index is down 0.7%, France's CAC-40 Index is 1.0% lower, Germany's DAX Index is declining 1.3%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index is falling 1.2%, and Italy's FTSE MIB Index is dropping 1.6%.

US manufacturing report pressures Asia 

 
In Asia, yesterday's gains on a deal among US lawmakers to raise the debt ceiling were completely erased following the dismal manufacturing report out of the world's largest economy, dampening the outlook for exporters. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slid 1.1% and South Korea's Kospi Index dropped 2.4%, marking the largest decline in the region, while China's Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.9% amid concerns that the nation's central bank will raise interest rates this month in its continued efforts to combat inflation. Meanwhile, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.4%, following a report that showed an unexpected 3.5% decline in building approvals in the land down under, where economists were expecting a gain of 3.0%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark lending rate unchanged, as expected, citing the uncertain global environment. Shares of BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP $91), the world's largest mining company, also added pressure as the disappointing manufacturing report in the US soured sentiment toward the global economic recovery. Elsewhere, India's BSE Sensex 30 Index dipped 1.2% amid comments from the Governor of the nation's central bank alluding to further interest rates hikes in order to curb inflation.

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