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Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Evening Market Update



Up and Down and All Around

In a volatile session equity markets overcame a steep mid-day selloff to break an eight-day losing streak and eke out a modest gain. Mixed enomic data gave investors no clear direction, as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index unexpectedly fell, but the ADP Employment Change report offered a glimmer of hope that the nation’s employment situation may be improving. Treasuries finished mixed and earnings announcements remained fairly positive, with Comcast, Time Warner, CBS and Mastercard all topping expectations. Clorox bested bottom-line estimates as well, but with disappointing margins. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 30 points (0.3%) to 11,896, the S&P 500 Index added 6 points (0.5%) to 1,260, and the Nasdaq Composite picked up 24 points (0.9%) to 2,693. In heavy volume, 1.3 billion shares were traded on the NYSE and 2.6 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq. WTI crude oil fell $1.93 to $91.86 per barrel, wholesale gasoline dropped $0.11 to $2.93 per gallon, and the Bloomberg gold spot price increased by $0.35 to $1,659.75 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index—a comparison of the US dollar to six major world currencies—was 0.7% lower at 74.03.

Comcast Corp.
(CMCSA $22) reported 2Q earnings ex-items of $0.42 per share, one cent above the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Reuters, while revenues jumped 51% year-over-year (y/y) to $14.33 billion, above the $13.83 billion that the Street had anticipated. The high top-line growth was helped by the company’s acquisition of a majority stake in NBCUniversal, which saw a 13% increase in revenue for the quarter. CMCSA said its cable distribution business rose 5.6% y/y as it added 99,000 total video, internet and voice customers, up from 83,000 in the second quarter last year. Shares of CMCSA finished modestly higher. 

Time Warner Inc.
(TWX $34) posted 2Q EPS ex-items of $0.60, four pennies above the Street’s estimate, with revenues increasing 10% y/y to $7.03 billion, compared to the $6.82 billion that analysts had expected. TWX benefitted from stronger advertising sales at its TV networks division, its largest business that includes cable channels such as CNN, as well as increased revenue growth at its film segment. Shares of TMX finished lower.

CBS Corp.
(CBS $27) reported 2Q EPS ex-items of $0.58, beating the $0.45 consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Reuters, with revenues increasing 7.7% year-over-year (y/y) to $3.59 billion, exceeding the $3.55 billion that the Street had forecasted. The media company said the quarter was driven by upfront ad sales and new licensing deals, with revenue at its entertainment unit rising 10% y/y and revenue at its cable networks climbing 12% y/y. Shares of CBS closed higher.

Mastercard Inc.
(MA $338) announced 2Q EPS of $4.76, well above the $4.23 that analysts forecasted, with revenues increasing 22.1% y/y to $1.7 billion, above the $1.55 billion projected by the Street. The credit card transaction processor said gross dollar volume, or spending on MasterCard-branded cards, rose 16% y/y, on a local currency basis, while processed transactions jumped 17% y/y. Shares of MA posted solid gains.

Shares of
Clorox Co. (CLX $69) fell after the company reported a decline in margins on accelerating commodity costs. The consumer-products maker did manage to post fiscal 4Q EPS ex-items of $1.26, above the $1.20 that analysts were expecting, while revenue grew 3.7% y/y to $1.47 billion, matching expectations. The board of CLX recently rejected a $10.7 billion takeover offer from activist investor Carl Icahn, saying the bid undervalued the company and lacked credibility.

Service sector read disappoints, private sector payrolls and mortgage applications rise

The
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index unexpectedly fell in July to 52.7 from 53.3 in June, while the forecast was for an increase to 53.5. A reading of 50 separates expansion from contraction. The report is generally considered a measure of economic strength in the service sector and is the companion to the ISM Manufacturing Index, which posted a disappointingly large decline to 50.9 in July. Both indexes showed declines in new orders, although orders remained in expansion territory for services, at 51.7. The non-manufacturing employment component fell 1.6 points to 52.5, and prices paid declined 4.3 to 56.6. Despite a 2.7 point increase in business activity/production to 56.1, the ISM indicated that survey respondent comments were mixed and that for the most part they indicate that business conditions are “flattening out.”

The
ADP Employment Change Report showed private sector payrolls rose by 114,000 jobs in July, versus the forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, which called for a 100,000 increase, and June’s 157,000 job gain was revised to a rise of 145,000 jobs. Services provided the biggest share of the gain, rising 121,000 in July, after increasing by 130,000 in June. The release, which does not include government hiring and firing, comes ahead of Friday’s broader nonfarm payrolls report, where economists expect an increase of 85,000 jobs in July, after posting a disappointing 18,000 increase in June. Excluding government hiring, July private sector payrolls are expected to increase 115,000, after expanding by 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 9.2% and average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month (m/m), after being flat in June.

Elsewhere, the
MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 7.1% last week, after the index that can be quite volatile on a week-to-week basis, declined by 5.0% in the previous week. The decline came as a 7.8% rise in the Refinance Index was accompanied by a 5.1% increase in the Purchase Index. Elsewhere, the average 30-year mortgage rate moved lower by 12 basis points (bps) to 4.45%.

Finally,
factory orders declined 0.8% in June, matching the expectations of economists, while May’s increase of 0.8% was revised downward to 0.6%. Within the report, orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft showed a 0.4% increase in June, while demand for transportation equipment fell 8.6%, reflecting a 28.9% drop in orders for commercial aircraft and a 2.7% decline in orders for autos and auto parts in June..

Treasuries were mixed, with the yield on the 2-year note up 1 bp to 0.33%, the yield on the 10-year note was flat remaining at 2.61%, while the 30-year bond rate is 2 bps lower at 3.89%.


Italian debt issues and Chinese data make for a tough day overseas

Trepidation over the recent downturn in the Italian debt market pressured sentiment in Europe. In an effort to contain the worsening problem, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi met with parliament to discuss his country’s debt crisis and lay out details of a three year fiscal plan for the nation. Yields on Italian bonds hit an all-time high yesterday, although Berlusconi said the jump in borrowing costs reflects global troubles, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, and represents a “confidence problem.” In European economic news, the service sectors in Italy and the UK both increased more than economists expected in July, while final readings out of France and Germany were unrevised from their previous readings. On the European currency front, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut its target interest rate and said it would significantly increase the supply of Swiss francs in the market over the next few days, in an effort to stem the rapid rise in its currency..


Economic data out of China and Australia hampered sentiment in the Asia/Pacific region. China’s services sector grew at its slowest pace in three months in July, according to the HSBC Services PMI Index, although the survey contrasts a services PMI released by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which showed an increase to 59.6 in July from 57.0 in June, with the 50-point level demarcating expansion and contraction. Australia suffered a 0.1% dip in retail sales for June, short of the 0.3% rise forecasted by economists and the country’s trade balance narrowed in June.


The US
economic calendar is fairly light for tomorrow with the only notable release being weekly initial jobless claims, which are expect to rise 7,000 from last week’s 398,000 to 405,000. Interest rate announcements from the Bank of England and European Central Bank highlight the international economic docket, which also includes Russian CPI and New Zealand’s unemployment rate.

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