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Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Portugal



Equity and futures volume last week on July 1st was low, but the day after the 4th of July was just horrible.  Tuesday's volume was 25% lower than the recent 10-day average with volatility roughly 40% less than the weakest days!  Although this is important, the news of Portugal was much bigger.

Portugal's debt was slashed by Moody's.  The AP said the following Major indexes were mixed for much of the day Tuesday but dipped in afternoon trading after Moody's downgraded Portugal's debt to "junk." The credit ratings agency cited concerns that Portugal will not be able to meet targets to reduce its deficit due to the "formidable challenges" the country is facing in cutting spending.

Investors have been worried that Europe's debt problems could slow the global economy and cause a crisis for European banks. "The European debt crisis is going to be with us for a while," said David Kelly, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds. "There still is a very big issue out there."

As you can see from yesterday's action, there wasn't a very large response to the news.  As long as China keeps supporting the Euro Currency, then the ES has a bid.  Apparently the equity market has a touch of European Bailout Fatigue: it won't be making large reactions to this type of news until there is an actual default (or perhaps when Italy is taken to the woodshed).


Trade Date: 7/5/11

E-Mini S&P Trades*

(before fees and commissions):


1. No "Secrets" trades filled today.

2. Algorithm positions (2)

3. "Reading the Tape" positions (0) ...combined Secret's, Algo, & "Reading the Tape" total...+0.25


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