Plethora of Pessimism Pressuring Prices
The US equity markets are under solid pressure in morning trading as uncertainty regarding the US debt ceiling is being exacerbated by concerns of the eurozone debt crisis spreading to Italy. Moreover, sentiment continues to be sour regarding the global economy on the heels of Friday's disappointing US labor report, while some data out of China is offering no help for the bulls. Treasuries are higher amid the declines in stocks as there are no major US economic reports scheduled for today, but traders are gearing up for some key data later in the week and tonight's unofficial start to 2Q earnings season. Meanwhile, M&A news is controlling the equity front as Peabody Energy Corp and ArcelorMittal announced they have jointly submitted a proposal to acquire Australia's Macarthur Coal Ltd for about $5.0 billion. Also, Lonza Group AG announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire Arch Chemicals for about $1.4 billion in cash. Overseas, Asian markets finished mostly lower, while financials are weighing on European stocks.
As of 8:50 a.m. ET, the September S&P 500 Index Globex future is 14 points below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 Index is 23 points below fair value, and the DJIA is 100 points below fair value. WTI crude oil is $1.61 lower at $94.59 per barrel, and the Bloomberg gold spot price is up $10.47 at $1,554.63 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index-a comparison of the US dollar to six major world currencies-is 1.0% higher at 75.91.
M&A news is dominating the equity headlines, with St. Louis-based Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU $60) and Luxembourg's ArcelorMittal SA (MT $34) announcing that they have jointly submitted a proposal to acquire Australia's Macarthur Coal Ltd. (MACDY $25) for A$15.50 ($16.57) per share in cash. Under the proposal, the company would be 60% owned by BTU and 40% by MT, and the proposed price implies a value for the equity in MACDY of about A$4.7 billion ($5.0 billion). MACDY confirmed it has received that offer and it will seek to engage with BTU and MT in relation to price and terms.
Elsewhere, Swiss-based pharmaceutical supplier Lonza Group AG (LZAGY $8) announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire US-based biocides firm Arch Chemicals (ARJ $42) for $47.20 per share in cash, or about $1.4 billion. Lonza said the acquisition significantly strengthens its life science portfolio and it expects "substantial cost synergies" in the second year after the deal closes, with accretion to EPS forecasted in year one.
Economic data this week likely to share spotlight with beginning of 2Q earnings season
Treasuries are higher in morning action as the equity markets are under pressure amid concerns about the debt crises in the US and Europe, with the yield on the 2-year note down 1 bp to 0.38%, the yield on the 10-year note declining 6 bps to 2.96%, and the 30-year bond rate 4 bps lower at 4.25%.
Although there are no major US economic releases scheduled for today, a week full of data kicks into gear midday tomorrow with the release of the minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed downgraded its assessment of the economy at the last meeting, citing some temporary factors, but in the press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Bernanke said some of the headwinds such as weakness in the financial sector and housing market "may be stronger and more persistent than we thought." The meeting was the last before the end of QE2 and Bernanke quelled ideas about a potential QE3 by saying that differences from last fall included improvement in the job market and the mitigated risk of deflation. Traders will be keying in on commentary about how much of the economic slowdown is due to temporary factors in the report and during Bernanke's two-day semi-annual Congressional testimony, which begins on Wednesday.
Meanwhile Thursday's advance retail sales is forecasted to be unchanged month-over-month (m/m) in June, after falling 0.2% in May, while sales ex-autos and ex-autos and gas are estimated to grow 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Due to the impact on consumer spending and corporate profits, inflation readings will also be in focus, starting with Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI), expected to show prices at the wholesale level were down 0.2% in June after gaining 0.2% in May, while the core rate, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to remain at a 0.2% rate. The release precedes Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, forecasted to show a 0.1% m/m decrease after rising 0.2% in May, while ex-food and energy it is expected to rise 0.2%. Friday also brings the industrial production report, expected to advance 0.3% m/m in June after gaining 0.1% in May, while capacity utilization is forecasted to increase to 77.0% from 76.7%.
While macroeconomic data has been mixed, markets will get a chance to hear from companies as 2Q earnings season unofficially kicks off after the close of trading today with Dow member Alcoa Inc's (AA $16) report. As Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders notes in her article Sparks: Are Stocks Telling a Better Story For the Second Half?, investors have been quick to list a grave set of macro obstacles for the market. Meanwhile, at the company, or micro level, the story looks more bullish, and is the story that no one is telling. While there's a lot of chatter that 2Q earnings estimates haven't come down enough, analyst estimates tend to be too low in post-recessionary periods. Meanwhile, companies remain well positioned, with corporate profits 10% higher versus last year and holding nearly $2 trillion in cash, which Liz Ann believes could lead to some upside earnings surprise potential. Read more at www.schwab.com/marketinsight.
Other releases on this week's US economic calendar include: NFIB small business optimism, trade balance, MBA Mortgage Applications, import prices, the Empire Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims, business inventories, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading for July.
Eurozone contagion fears pressure Europe
The equity markets in Europe are solidly below the flatline in afternoon action, led by steep losses in financials as worries about the debt crisis spreading to Italy are hampering sentiment across the pond. Italian bond yields are higher and the nation's banking stocks are under pressure as European Union finance officials are set to meet today to continue talks about solving Greece's debt crisis, while possibly discussing the threat of contagion to Italy. Meanwhile, before the meeting, heads of the European Council, European Central Bank (ECB), and the eurozone finance ministers all held talks, along with other officials in the region, but Reuters cited one official as saying the preliminary discussion was aimed at "coordination, not a crisis meeting." Italian equity and bond markets fell sharply on Friday on growing concerns about the eurozone's third-largest economy, per Reuters, prompting Italian market regulators to approve new disclosure requirements on short sale positions. Also, stymieing sentiment, concerns remain from Friday's lackluster US jobs data and Thursday's rate hike from the ECB, while China reported some disappointing trade figures and stronger-than-expected inflation data over the weekend.
The focus on the debt situation in the region is overshadowing data out of France, which showed stronger-than-forecasted industrial and manufacturing production for May.
The UK FTSE 100 Index is 1.1% lower, France's CAC-40 Index down 2.2%, and Germany's DAX Index is falling 2.0%, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index is dropping 3.3% and Greece's Athex Composite Index decreasing 3.0%.
Global data and debt concerns pressure Asia
Stocks in Asia finished mostly lower as traders reacted to Friday's disappointing US labor report and economic data out of China. Meanwhile, the festering debt crisis in the eurozone as well as debt ceiling uncertainty in the US teamed up to stymie stocks in the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index declined 0.7% amid the global economic uneasiness, while South Korea's Kospi Index fell 1.1%. Stocks in Japan were also pressured by a sharp drop in shares of Elpida Memory Inc. (ELPDF $12) after the world's third-largest maker of computer memory chips, per Bloomberg, announced that it plans to raise over $900 million in capital through share and convertible bond sales. Elsewhere, Australian stocks moved solidly lower on the economic uneasiness, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index dropping 1.6%, exacerbated by the weekend unveiling of the government's carbon tax for polluting companies.
Meanwhile, stocks in China finished mixed, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index falling 1.7% as economic reports showed inflation was hotter than anticipated, while exports and imports grew at smaller-than-forecasted rates, exacerbating sentiment. China's consumer prices rose 6.4% year-over-year (y/y) in June, after increasing 5.5% in May, versus the 6.2% gain that economists expected, while producer prices rose 7.1% y/y, after increasing 6.8% in May, compared to the 6.9% rate that was anticipated. Moreover, a separate report showed Chinese exports rose 17.9% y/y in June, from 19.4% in May, and the 18.6% forecast, while imports increased 19.3%, following the 28.4% gain in May, versus the 25.3% rate that was projected.
The US equity markets are under solid pressure in morning trading as uncertainty regarding the US debt ceiling is being exacerbated by concerns of the eurozone debt crisis spreading to Italy. Moreover, sentiment continues to be sour regarding the global economy on the heels of Friday's disappointing US labor report, while some data out of China is offering no help for the bulls. Treasuries are higher amid the declines in stocks as there are no major US economic reports scheduled for today, but traders are gearing up for some key data later in the week and tonight's unofficial start to 2Q earnings season. Meanwhile, M&A news is controlling the equity front as Peabody Energy Corp and ArcelorMittal announced they have jointly submitted a proposal to acquire Australia's Macarthur Coal Ltd for about $5.0 billion. Also, Lonza Group AG announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire Arch Chemicals for about $1.4 billion in cash. Overseas, Asian markets finished mostly lower, while financials are weighing on European stocks.
As of 8:50 a.m. ET, the September S&P 500 Index Globex future is 14 points below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 Index is 23 points below fair value, and the DJIA is 100 points below fair value. WTI crude oil is $1.61 lower at $94.59 per barrel, and the Bloomberg gold spot price is up $10.47 at $1,554.63 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index-a comparison of the US dollar to six major world currencies-is 1.0% higher at 75.91.
M&A news is dominating the equity headlines, with St. Louis-based Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU $60) and Luxembourg's ArcelorMittal SA (MT $34) announcing that they have jointly submitted a proposal to acquire Australia's Macarthur Coal Ltd. (MACDY $25) for A$15.50 ($16.57) per share in cash. Under the proposal, the company would be 60% owned by BTU and 40% by MT, and the proposed price implies a value for the equity in MACDY of about A$4.7 billion ($5.0 billion). MACDY confirmed it has received that offer and it will seek to engage with BTU and MT in relation to price and terms.
Elsewhere, Swiss-based pharmaceutical supplier Lonza Group AG (LZAGY $8) announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire US-based biocides firm Arch Chemicals (ARJ $42) for $47.20 per share in cash, or about $1.4 billion. Lonza said the acquisition significantly strengthens its life science portfolio and it expects "substantial cost synergies" in the second year after the deal closes, with accretion to EPS forecasted in year one.
Economic data this week likely to share spotlight with beginning of 2Q earnings season
Treasuries are higher in morning action as the equity markets are under pressure amid concerns about the debt crises in the US and Europe, with the yield on the 2-year note down 1 bp to 0.38%, the yield on the 10-year note declining 6 bps to 2.96%, and the 30-year bond rate 4 bps lower at 4.25%.
Although there are no major US economic releases scheduled for today, a week full of data kicks into gear midday tomorrow with the release of the minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed downgraded its assessment of the economy at the last meeting, citing some temporary factors, but in the press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Bernanke said some of the headwinds such as weakness in the financial sector and housing market "may be stronger and more persistent than we thought." The meeting was the last before the end of QE2 and Bernanke quelled ideas about a potential QE3 by saying that differences from last fall included improvement in the job market and the mitigated risk of deflation. Traders will be keying in on commentary about how much of the economic slowdown is due to temporary factors in the report and during Bernanke's two-day semi-annual Congressional testimony, which begins on Wednesday.
Meanwhile Thursday's advance retail sales is forecasted to be unchanged month-over-month (m/m) in June, after falling 0.2% in May, while sales ex-autos and ex-autos and gas are estimated to grow 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Due to the impact on consumer spending and corporate profits, inflation readings will also be in focus, starting with Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI), expected to show prices at the wholesale level were down 0.2% in June after gaining 0.2% in May, while the core rate, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to remain at a 0.2% rate. The release precedes Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, forecasted to show a 0.1% m/m decrease after rising 0.2% in May, while ex-food and energy it is expected to rise 0.2%. Friday also brings the industrial production report, expected to advance 0.3% m/m in June after gaining 0.1% in May, while capacity utilization is forecasted to increase to 77.0% from 76.7%.
While macroeconomic data has been mixed, markets will get a chance to hear from companies as 2Q earnings season unofficially kicks off after the close of trading today with Dow member Alcoa Inc's (AA $16) report. As Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders notes in her article Sparks: Are Stocks Telling a Better Story For the Second Half?, investors have been quick to list a grave set of macro obstacles for the market. Meanwhile, at the company, or micro level, the story looks more bullish, and is the story that no one is telling. While there's a lot of chatter that 2Q earnings estimates haven't come down enough, analyst estimates tend to be too low in post-recessionary periods. Meanwhile, companies remain well positioned, with corporate profits 10% higher versus last year and holding nearly $2 trillion in cash, which Liz Ann believes could lead to some upside earnings surprise potential. Read more at www.schwab.com/marketinsight.
Other releases on this week's US economic calendar include: NFIB small business optimism, trade balance, MBA Mortgage Applications, import prices, the Empire Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims, business inventories, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading for July.
Eurozone contagion fears pressure Europe
The equity markets in Europe are solidly below the flatline in afternoon action, led by steep losses in financials as worries about the debt crisis spreading to Italy are hampering sentiment across the pond. Italian bond yields are higher and the nation's banking stocks are under pressure as European Union finance officials are set to meet today to continue talks about solving Greece's debt crisis, while possibly discussing the threat of contagion to Italy. Meanwhile, before the meeting, heads of the European Council, European Central Bank (ECB), and the eurozone finance ministers all held talks, along with other officials in the region, but Reuters cited one official as saying the preliminary discussion was aimed at "coordination, not a crisis meeting." Italian equity and bond markets fell sharply on Friday on growing concerns about the eurozone's third-largest economy, per Reuters, prompting Italian market regulators to approve new disclosure requirements on short sale positions. Also, stymieing sentiment, concerns remain from Friday's lackluster US jobs data and Thursday's rate hike from the ECB, while China reported some disappointing trade figures and stronger-than-expected inflation data over the weekend.
The focus on the debt situation in the region is overshadowing data out of France, which showed stronger-than-forecasted industrial and manufacturing production for May.
The UK FTSE 100 Index is 1.1% lower, France's CAC-40 Index down 2.2%, and Germany's DAX Index is falling 2.0%, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index is dropping 3.3% and Greece's Athex Composite Index decreasing 3.0%.
Global data and debt concerns pressure Asia
Stocks in Asia finished mostly lower as traders reacted to Friday's disappointing US labor report and economic data out of China. Meanwhile, the festering debt crisis in the eurozone as well as debt ceiling uncertainty in the US teamed up to stymie stocks in the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index declined 0.7% amid the global economic uneasiness, while South Korea's Kospi Index fell 1.1%. Stocks in Japan were also pressured by a sharp drop in shares of Elpida Memory Inc. (ELPDF $12) after the world's third-largest maker of computer memory chips, per Bloomberg, announced that it plans to raise over $900 million in capital through share and convertible bond sales. Elsewhere, Australian stocks moved solidly lower on the economic uneasiness, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index dropping 1.6%, exacerbated by the weekend unveiling of the government's carbon tax for polluting companies.
Meanwhile, stocks in China finished mixed, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index falling 1.7% as economic reports showed inflation was hotter than anticipated, while exports and imports grew at smaller-than-forecasted rates, exacerbating sentiment. China's consumer prices rose 6.4% year-over-year (y/y) in June, after increasing 5.5% in May, versus the 6.2% gain that economists expected, while producer prices rose 7.1% y/y, after increasing 6.8% in May, compared to the 6.9% rate that was anticipated. Moreover, a separate report showed Chinese exports rose 17.9% y/y in June, from 19.4% in May, and the 18.6% forecast, while imports increased 19.3%, following the 28.4% gain in May, versus the 25.3% rate that was projected.
No comments:
Post a Comment