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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Morning Market Update


Modest Gains Despite Debt Uneasiness
The US equity markets are slightly to the upside in early trading even as an agreement on the US debt ceiling issue appears to continue to be elusive in Washington, while the eurozone debt crisis remains in focus. Earnings reports are evoking a mixed response, with Ford Motor Co and Texas Instruments both topping the Street's forecasts, while Netflix Inc offered a disappointing outlook and Dow member 3M Co, along with UPS Inc, provided some cautious commentary. Treasuries are nearly unchanged following a decline in US home prices, ahead of data on new home sales, consumer confidence, and regional manufacturing activity. Overseas, Asian stocks advanced on favorable corporate earnings reports and optimism regarding the outlook for the economy, while Europe is mixed amid a plethora of data.

As of 8:45 a.m. ET, the September S&P 500 Index Globex future is 2 points above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 Index is 5 points above fair value, and the DJIA is 13 points above fair value. WTI crude oil is $0.56 higher at $99.76 per barrel, and the Bloomberg gold spot price is down $0.70 at $1,613.32 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index-a comparison of the US dollar to six major world currencies-is down 0.7% at 73.61.

Ford Motor Co. (F $13) announced 2Q EPS ex-items of $0.65, above the $0.60 consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Reuters, with revenues increasing 13% year-over-year (y/y) to $35.5 billion, well above the $31.6 billion that the Street had forecasted. The automaker said it saw continued growth in its automotive business and it focused on strengthening its balance sheet.

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN $31) reported 2Q earnings of $0.56 per share, two cents above the estimate of analysts, with revenues declining 1% y/y to $3.5 billion, roughly inline with the Street's forecast. The company said it saw continued success in its portfolio of analog and embedded processing chips, while it also resumed production ahead of schedule at its Japan factories that were damaged in the earthquake. TXN issued 3Q guidance that matched analysts' forecasts.

Netflix Inc. (NFLX $282) posted 2Q profits of $1.26 per share, above the $1.11 that the Street had anticipated, with revenues growing 52% y/y to $789 million, compared to the $791 million that analysts projected. The online movie and TV show subscription service said global subscribers grew 70% y/y to 25.6 million. However, NFLX issued 3Q EPS guidance that missed the Street's forecast, while warning that subscriber growth could slow as it implements a recently announced pricing change aimed at separating its mail subscription and online video streaming plans.

Dow member 3M Co. (MMM $95) achieved 2Q earnings of $1.60 per share, inline with what the Street had estimated, with revenues increasing 14% y/y to $7.7 billion, above the $7.6 billion that analysts had anticipated. The conglomerate said the impact of the Japan earthquake during the quarter was inline with expectations, while a larger-than-anticipated contraction in LCD TV end-market demand affected its sales, reflecting a tighter consumer electronics market. The company said for the full year, it estimates that the Japan earthquake will reduce sales growth by about one percentage point and EPS by $0.11-0.12 per share.

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS $74) reported 2Q EPS ex-items of $1.05, one penny above the expectation of analysts, as revenues rose 8% y/y to $13.2 billion, exceeding the $13.1 billion that the Street was looking for. The package delivery and logistics firm said it was able to grow earnings in an "uneven economic environment."

Home prices decline, plethora of data due out after the opening bell
Just before the opening bell, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a decline in home prices of 4.51% y/y in May, compared to the 4.50% drop that economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. Month-over-month (m/m), home prices were 0.05% lower, compared to forecasts, which called for a flat reading.

Treasuries are nearly unchanged following the home price data and amid the US debt ceiling uncertainty, with the yield on the 2-year note flat at 0.40%, while the yields on the 10-year note and the 30-year bond are advancing 1 bp to 3.01% and 4.33%, respectively.

Later this morning, the economic calendar will yield the releases of new home sales, forecasted to increase 0.3% m/m to an annual rate of 320,000 units in June, and the Consumer Confidence Index, expected to decline from 58.5 in June to 56.0 in July. Also we will get a look at regional manufacturing activity, with the release of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, projected to improve from 3 in June to 5 for July, with a reading above zero denoting expansion.

Europe mixed amid a plethora of data
The equity markets in Europe are mixed in afternoon action, with financials and technology shares finding some pressure amid some disappointing corporate reports and lingering eurozone debt concerns. Financials are under pressure following disappointing debt auctions in Italy and Spain, as yields rose, while UBS AG (UBS $17) reported profits that missed analysts' projections and lowered its outlook. Meanwhile, technology stocks are one of the worst performers, amid a sharp drop in shares of STMicroelectronics NV (STM $9) after Europe's largest semiconductor company, per Bloomberg, offered a 3Q revenue warning. Moreover, shares of BP Plc. (BP $47) are moving lower after the energy company reported earnings that missed expectations. However, healthcare issues are finding some support from a better-than-forecasted profit report from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK $44).

In economic news across the pond, UK 2Q GDP expanded at a 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) rate, inline with economists' forecasts, but a deceleration from the 0.5% growth seen in 1Q. Year-over-year, UK 2Q GDP grew at a rate of 0.7%, down from the 1.6% growth registered in 1Q, and below the 0.8% expansion that was projected. In other economic news, German consumer confidence declined more than anticipated for August, while French consumer confidence unexpectedly improved.

The UK FTSE 100 Index is advancing 0.2%, France's CAC-40 Index is declining 0.4%, Germany's DAX Index is up 0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB Index is gaining 0.2%, and Spain's IBEX 35 Index is decreasing 0.2%.

Asia advances despite global debt concerns
Stocks in Asia finished broadly higher as optimism toward the corporate earnings front and the economic prospects for the second half overshadowed lingering concerns regarding the US debt ceiling issue and the eurozone debt crisis. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.5%, aided by a solid gain in shares of Canon Inc. (CAJ $49) as the camera maker reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings despite the impact of disruptions in production and the supply of parts from the March earthquake, while offering an upbeat outlook. Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi Index gained 0.9%, boosted by an upbeat second-half economic outlook from Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Kim Jae Chun, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1.0%, supported by a favorable forecast for household spending. Elsewhere, China's Shanghai Composite Index increased 0.5% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index advanced 1.3%, with shares of Baidu Inc. (BIDU $157) rallying after the Chinese internet company issued a stronger-than-estimated revenue forecast. However, stocks in India failed to participate in the region's advance, with the BSE Sensex 30 Index falling 1.9% after the nation's central bank increased interest rates in an attempt to control inflation.

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