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Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Morning Market Update


Earnings and Debt Ceiling Optimism Keep Stocks in the Green
The US equity markets are extending yesterday's solid advance in early action, as the bulls are being rejuvenated by a plethora of corporate earnings reports, as well as optimism that US lawmakers may be closer to agreeing to a budget deficit plan. Yesterday, the "Gang of Six" within the Senate resuscitated its deficit-reduction proposal that gained a surprising amount of bipartisan support, including that from President Obama, boosting optimism that an agreement could be made before the August 2 deadline. Treasuries are mostly lower amid the gains in stocks, following a jump in mortgage applications, and ahead of the release of existing home sales. Meanwhile, a trouncing of analysts' earnings expectations by Apple Inc is highlighting a slew of earnings news, while Yahoo Inc missed the Street's EPS estimates. In other equity news, Dow member United Technologies Corp topped analysts' forecasts, while AMR Corp posted a wider-than-expected loss but announced the largest aircraft order in aviation history. In M&A news, Nalco Holding Company and Ecolab Inc announced a definitive agreement to merge in a deal worth about $5.4 billion. Overseas, Asian stocks were mostly higher on the optimism in the US, which is also boosting European equity markets in afternoon action.

As of 8:53 a.m. ET, the September S&P 500 Index Globex future is 5 points above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 Index is 15 points above fair value, and the DJIA is 31 points above fair value. WTI crude oil is $1.05 higher at $98.91 per barrel, and the Bloomberg gold spot price is down $4.52 at $1,583.98 per ounce. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index-a comparison of the US dollar to six major world currencies-is down 0.4% at 74.83.

Apple Inc. (AAPL $377) reported fiscal 3Q earnings of $7.79 per share, well above the $5.85 consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Reuters, with revenues jumping 82% year-over-year (y/y) to $28.6 billion, exceeding the $25.0 billion that the Street had anticipated. The company said iPhone sales spiked 142% y/y to 20.3 million units, iPad sales surged 183% y/y to 9.3 million units, and it sold nearly 4 million Macs, a 14% y/y rise, while iPod sales declined 20% y/y to 7.5 million units. In typical company fashion, AAPL issued 4Q guidance that was below analysts' expectations.

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO $15) announced 2Q EPS of $0.18, one penny below the Street's forecast, with revenues excluding traffic acquisition costs (TAC) declining 5% y/y to $1.1 billion, roughly inline with analysts' expectations. The world's second-largest internet search engine issued 3Q guidance that fell short of the Street's expectations.

Dow member United Technologies Corp. (UTX $89) posted 2Q profits of $1.45 per share, above the $1.41 that analysts were expecting, with revenues increasing 9% y/y to $15.1 billion, topping the $14.7 billion that the Street had projected. UTX raised its full-year guidance.

AMR Corp. (AMR $5) reported a 2Q net loss of $0.85 per share, wider than the $0.78 shortfall that analysts forecasted, as fuel prices increased 31% y/y, with revenues increasing 7.8% y/y to $6.1 billion, matching the Street's estimates. Separately, the parent of American Airlines announced the largest aircraft order in aviation history, agreeing to acquire 460 narrowbody aircraft from Dow member Boeing Co. (BA $71) and European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. (EADSY $34)-the parent of the Airbus aircraft-with an option to acquire 465 additional aircraft through 2025. This is the first time in two-decades that Airbus will be able to make planes for the US airline, per Bloomberg.

In M&A news, water, energy and air company Nalco Holding Company (NLC $29) and cleaning, sanitizing, and food safety firm Ecolab Inc. (ECL $55) announced a definitive agreement to merge in a deal worth about $5.4 billion.

Mortgage applications jump, existing home sales due out later this morning
The MBA Mortgage Application Index jumped 15.5% last week, after the index that can be quite volatile on a week-to-week basis, fell by 5.1% in the previous week. The solid increase came as a 23.1% surge in the Refinance Index more than offset a 0.1% dip in the Purchase Index. Elsewhere, the average 30-year mortgage rate ticked lower by 1 basis point (bp) to 4.54%.

Treasuries are mostly lower following the data and the advance in stocks, with the yield on the 2-year note unchanged at 0.37%, while the yields on the 10-year note and the 30-year bond are advancing 2 bps to 2.91% and 4.21%, respectively.

Later this morning, the housing data will continue to poor in with the release of existing home sales, forecasted to gain 1.9% month-over-month (m/m) to an annual rate of 4.90 million units in June, after falling to 4.81 million units in May. Existing home sales represent the largest portion of the total market and reflect closings from contracts entered one to two months earlier.

US data and debt optimism lifting European stocks
The equity markets in Europe are solidly higher in afternoon action, led by strong advances in financials, on soothed concerns about the US debt ceiling being raised by the August 2 deadline, following the announcement that US lawmakers are closer to a deficit-reduction agreement. Meanwhile, a plethora of favorable earnings reports out of the US, highlighted by Apple Inc's better-than-forecasted results, is supporting sentiment across the pond. Also, banks are moving higher as European leaders are set to meet tomorrow to discuss the eurozone's debt crisis and a plan to help Greece get its debt issues under control, while a report suggested that euro-area officials were considering steps to boost the capital positions of the region's banking sector, through the use of credit lines and the enablement of the eurozone's 440 billion-euro rescue fund, per Bloomberg. In other equity news, shares of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co are nicely higher on the announcement from US-based AMR Corp that the parent of American Airlines picked the maker of Airbus planes as one of the manufacturers in its record aircraft order.

On the European economic front, German producer prices came in slightly above economists' forecasts for June, Italian industrial orders rose more than anticipated for May, and the Bank of England's (BoE) release of its policy meeting minutes showed members voted 7-2 to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

The UK FTSE 100 Index is 1.1% higher, France's CAC-40 Index is gaining 1.7%, Germany's DAX Index is rising 0.4%, and Italy's FTSE MIB Index is jumping 2.7%.

Asia receives a boost from US optimism
Stocks in Asia moved mostly higher amid optimism regarding the US economy, as reports yesterday suggested lawmakers in Washington appear to be moving closer to agreeing to a deficit reduction plan, while key earnings reports from the US tech sector exceeded expectations and US housing data came in stronger than expected. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index and South Korea's Kospi Index both registered gains of 1.2%, on strength in tech issues and export stocks, while mining and financial stocks boosted Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index, which advanced 1.8%. Elsewhere, the Hong Hang Seng Index gained 0.5% and Taiwan's Taiex Index jumped 2.1%. However, China's Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.1%, pressured by weakness in resource-related stocks amid monetary tightening concerns and India's BSE Sensex 30 Index declined 0.8%, pressured by a steep decline in shares of Wipro Ltd. (WIT $13) after the software exporter reported disappointing sales results.

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