Data and Gov Scams

by Larry Levin

Today was your garden variety up day on Fraud Street: bad news drove the market higher again...on very low volume - again.

Empire State Manufacturing Index comes out lower than expected, dropping almost 50% from last month's reading. Moreover, the degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.
Industrial Production was "as expected" but the prior month's gain was gutted by 40%.
Capacity Utilization came in a little worse than expectations with its prior month's reading also being reduced. (Are revisions ever positive? Said another way: Is the original headline data always over optimistic? Gee, I wonder why that would happen?)
Home Price declines prompted Diana Olick of CNBC to claim that the double dip in home prices has begun.
With this "great news" and the Fed goosing equities via POMO actions, the market had to rally. Seriously, what would you expect - a decline?
In other news, the government is ready to pull the "jobs wool" over your eyes. Please don't let your friends fall for this cheap parlor trick.

In a bid to goose the poor unemployment picture just before the election, your government is doing something it has never done before: it is forcing temporary polling workers across the country to fill out tax forms (even though they'll only make about $100 for the day) so that they can be counted as employed, thus fraudulently goosing the jobs data. How pathetic!

From the story we read..."I have been a poll worker (for) many years," wrote one of my readers, who alerted me to this situation, "and after all these years, on Aug. 31, we received a letter in the mail from the Board of Elections stating the IRS has determined that if we work the polls we are now considered employees of the BofE."

Because this report is more complex than others it is being released on the second Friday of October, not the first Friday. And because of this it will be one week closer to the election.

There won't be another employment report until days after the Nov. 2 election.

So any temporary poll workers included in the October count wouldn't be removed until voters have already decided on who will represent them.

Read more here:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/are_poll_workers_being_used_to_inflate_wPjTGS93ODzN8BXLg568iI#ixzz0zen1FR3o



Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 9/15/10

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) OTF buy @ 10:06am at 1114.75 = +1.50 (1 lot)

2) FT buy @ 2:45pm at 1119.25 = +1.50 (1 lot)

3) Algorithm positions (3)

4) “Reading the Tape” positions (3) combined Secret’s, Algo, & “Reading the Tape” total… +1.50



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