Data

by Larry Levin

Although today closed with huge gains, it wasn't due to any of today's economic data. If the financial media told you that, they were wrong and didn't bother to read the tape. When the data was released the SP500 was trading at 1106.50 and closed only 2-points higher...just 2.00 points. Hopefully they told you what I said a few days ago: central banks around the world will bailout the European banks on the hook for the Dubai debt if the U.A.E. central bank goes back on its word. Risk? What is that?

The ICSC-Goldman report on retail sales showed only mild results for the big Nov. 28 shopping week. In fact, it was DOWN 0.1% vs. the prior week and showed a year-on-year rate of plus 3.1%, but that is DOWN 0.2% from the prior year. Hmm, I seem to recall all across the lame-stream media that holiday shopping was great. Didn't it report big "black Friday" traffic and sales? Uh-huh, more BS.

The ISM manufacturing index was worse than expected but still shows that manufacturing is growing, which is overall good news.

Construction spending was touted as much better than expected since the anticipation was for a loss of -0.4%. It came in at 0.0% (unchanged). Conveniently, the lame-stream media did NOT tell you about the revision to the prior month and it was a whopper. The prior month was said to have been a +0.8% gain, but it was revised down by a factor of three to -1.6%! A massive revision indeed. Year over year spending continues to deteriorate.

Finally there was the pending home sales report. Question: if so many people find it difficult to obtain a loan, why do "pending" home sales data matter? It's a joke.

Along this line of thinking I received a great email from DJ in Las Vegas today. In it he says...As a mortgage broker and FX trader in Las Vegas, I can tell you the NAR pending homes sales is another myth. Here, the buyers are writing 5-6 offers on a single earnest money deposit in escrow because the banks (sellers) are taking 7-15 weeks to accept an offer while they try to shop it for more cash. Plus, anyone wanting a FHA or VA mortgage is pretty much going to get rejected. And conventional loan buyers will get put into the back of the queue. Bottom line, divide pending sales by 5. So, the real question is why the NAR simply doesn't report "closed sales". That would be an accurate stat. Duh!

Thanks DJ.

This morning's auto sales were said to be better than expected, but only after seasonal adjustments. More BS.

Oh, and speaking of seasonal adjustments, the BS at the BLS continues to get deeper and deeper. Last week the government reported a so-called inspiring weekly jobless claims report. However, it was entirely due to seasonal adjustments.

The government said: In the week ending Nov. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 466,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 501,000.

But in the fine print it went on to say: The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 543,926 in the week ending Nov. 21, an increase of 68,080 from the previous week.

Uh-huh...another MASSIVELY underreported and completely fictitious original data point. The lies from the government are simply amazing.



Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 12/1/09

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) No "Secrets" trades filled today.

2) Algorithm positions (11)

3) "Reading the Tape" positions (19) ...combined Secret's, Algo, & "Reading the Tape" total...+2.25



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