The natural gas inventory figures came in more or less as expected, which in this market is a victory! Otherwise, the tame inventory data really should not be a surprise. If we are to believe what my near and intermediate work is telling us, the worst of the gas bear market is behind us, and now we are in the arduous “base-building” phase (measured in weeks) prior to a sustainable powerful upmove. For the time being, yesterday’s low at 12.32 followed by the climb to 12.90 so far has the right look of the intitiation of a new upleg that continues to advance from 7/13 (11.96) to 14.00 (7/23). If my work proves correct, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG) is on the way to revisit 14.00 next.
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