Weekly Claims

by Larry Levin

Whoa, what a rotten day. The total range was so small it didn't even come to 10.00 points. In fact, one of the 30-minute periods was so sleepy its entire range was a pathetic 2.40 points. Thank goodness this type of day doesn't happen too often.

There were two data points today: the 30-YR Bond auction and weekly unemployment claims. The 30-YR Bond auction didn't go as well as planned garnering only a 2.36 bid-to-cover ratio, which shows fairly weak demand. However, that wasn't a real shock since these bonds are at the very end of the yield curve and not too many folks want to gamble that that much time exposure.

Initial weekly jobless claims of last week fell 52,000 to a much lower-than-expected level of 565,000, which was surprising, and the lowest level since the beginning of the year. So on the surface this report looked like one of the "green shoots" of good news that the media keeps regurgitating; but wait, there's more.

The negative in the report is that continuing claims jumped 159,000 to a new high of 6.883 million in data for the June 27 week. The four-week average is also a new high, at 6.769 million. Check out the massively higher continuing claims (as in can NOT find a job) over initial claims. Without question this is the worst unemployment claims since 1971.



Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 7/9/09

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) VA buy @ 8:35am at 879.25 = -1.50 (1 lot)

2) 80% sell @ 9:05am at 879.25 = -.75 (1 lot)

3) Engf sell @ 11:50am at 880.75 = b/e (1 lot)

4) Algorithm positions (3)

5) "Reading the Tape" positions (0) ...combined Secret's, Algo, & "Reading the Tape" total...-1.50


Electronic (YM) Mini-Dow:

1) None today



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