Monthly Employment

by Larry Levin

Friday's employment report from the Labor Department was bad-again. US workers were hammered again in March with large job losses, even government jobs, increasing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began to 5.1 million. Although the monthly data was approximately what had been expected, prior month's data were revised down (worse) again.

In fact, the New York Times recently reported on this disturbing trend.

The Labor Department keeps concluding that its initial estimates were too optimistic.

Here are the total job losses reported for recent months, as originally reported and as shown in the latest revisions.

August 2008: Initially 84,000, revised to 175,000
September 2008: Initially 159,000, revised to 321,000
October 2008: Initially 240,000, revised to 380,000
November 2008: Initially 533,000, revised to 597,000
December 2008: Initially 524,000, revised to 681,000
January 2009: Initially 598,000, revised to 655,000
February 2009: Initially 651,000, as released today.

On average, from August through January, the first estimate was too optimistic by 112,000 jobs.

Friday's report was similar: there were more revisions. However, instead of revising the February data, the BLS revised the January data a second time. The change in total nonfarm employment for January was revised from -655,000 to -741,000, while the change for February remained -651,000 - for now.

Without a February revision the unemployment rate reached a new high at 8.5%, notching the 15th consecutive month of job losses.

These numbers, however, reflect the official unemployment data. What is rarely reported is the U-6 data, which includes those that no longer receive unemployment benefits or are no longer looking for work. Because one cannot receive unemployment benefits, is he working? The government doesn't care; it wants them off of the official unemployment list pronto. The unofficial U-6 data show that real unemployment has now reached 15.6%.

This doesn't look like it will be ending soon.



Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 4/3/09

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) Pivot (S1) buy @ 9:10am at 825.00 = +1.50 (1 lot)

2) OTF sell @ 10:30am at 826.75 = -.50 (1 lot)

3) IDVA sell @ 11:10am at 830.75 = +.75 & -1.00 (2 lot)

4) Algorithm positions (5)...combined Secret's and Algo total...+12.75


Electronic (YM) Mini-Dow:

1) Buy @ 11:50am at 7,897 = b/e & +9 (2 lot)

2) Buy @ 1:50pm at 7,932 = -10 (1 lot)...-$5.00 net



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