Market Data

by Larry Levin

The market sold off a touch today, possibly just taking a breather from such a run. Today's market data didn't do anything to discourage the setback; it wasn't very positive.

The Conference Board said this morning that the recession will continue and a return to strong growth won't occur until next year. I suppose that depends on how one defines "strong growth." The reason for the statement was its LEI data. The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) fell 0.4% in February, following a downwardly revised gain of 0.1% in January. The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor in February, while initial claims for unemployment insurance were the largest negative contributor.

There's no sign of a bottom, wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics, in a research note. "The trend remains clearly downwards, consistent with continued outright contraction in the economy," Shepherdson wrote.

The Labor Department released weekly unemployment claims this morning saying the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits jumped by 185,000 to a record seasonally adjusted 5.47 million in the week ending March 7. The 185,000 weekly increase in continuing claims was the second largest in the past year.

The four-week average of new claims rose by 3,750 to 654,750, the highest level in 26 years. The four-week average is considered a better gauge of labor market conditions than the volatile weekly number because it smoothes out one-time distortions caused by holidays, bad weather or strikes. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 118,750 to 5.25 million, also a record high.

The insured unemployment rate, the proportion of covered workers who are receiving benefits, rose by two-tenths of a percentage to 4.1%, the highest in nearly 26 years.

Compared with the same week a year ago, new jobless claims are up about 84%, while continuing claims are up 87%. Since the beginning of the year, new claims have risen 18% and continuing claims have risen 17%.

No wonder the market took a breather today. This doesn't show any signs of an improving job market.


Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 3/19/09

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) VA sell @ 9:40am at 793.00 = +5.00 (1 filled)

2) OTF sell @ 11:30am at 784.00 = +1.75 & -.75 (2-lot)

3) Engf sell @ 12:30pm at 783.75 = -2.25 (1-lot)

4) OTF buy @ 1:30pm at 782.00 = -1.00 (1-lot)

5) OTF sell @ 2:30pm at 783.50 = -.75 (1-lot)

6) Algorithm positions (7)...combined SofT and Algo total...+8.00


Electronic (YM) Mini-Dow:


1) Buy @ 9:30am at 7,409 = +3 & +31 (2 lot)...+$170.00 net



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