Jobs Data

by Larry Levin

It was another bruising week for the longs. Friday's jobs data couldn't provide a spark. The S&P 500 Index fell 7% last week, the largest weekly decline since late November and its fourth straight negative week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6% in the week, also its fourth straight weekly decline.

The U.S. economy lost 651,000 jobs last month, the fourth month in a row where job losses were near or above 600,000. Furthermore, the unemployment rate climbed to 8.1% in February, the highest rate in over 25 years.

Although February's job losses were large, they were also as expected. However, previous payroll data were revised lower by a total of 161,000. The new numbers show that payrolls fell by 655,000 in January and by 681,000 in December. The job losses in December were the biggest monthly decline in jobs since October 1949, when half a million steelworkers went on strike for higher pay.

These numbers reflect the official unemployment data. What is rarely reported is the U-6 data, which includes those that no longer receive unemployment benefits or are no longer looking for work. Because one cannot receive unemployment benefits, is he working? The government doesn't care; it wants them off of the official unemployment list pronto. The unofficial U-6 data show that real unemployment has now reached 16%.


Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 3/6/09

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):

1) IDVA buy @ 9:35am at 680.75 = +1.50 & +2.25 (2-lot)

2) IDVA buy @ 10:45am at 676.00 = -1.00 (1-lot)

3) VA sell @ 11:00am at 682.00 = +2.00 & -.75 (2-lot)

4) OTF buy @ 11:30am at 677.00 = +1.25 & -1.25 (2-lot)

5) FT sell @ 11:55am at 674.25 = -1.50 (1-lot)

6) Algorithm positions (14)...combined SofT and Algo total...+15.50


Electronic (YM) Mini-Dow:


1) None today



Sign up as an AvidTrader Member to receive "The Technician" Value Area's each day. The market then has an 80% chance of filling the Value Area. Many traders familiar with the Value Area and the techniques that go along with it use it to help them decide what trades to do each day. Join and see how this technique can help you trade more successfully!