For better or worse, to participate in another potent recovery rally, our model trading portfolio positioned long in energy -- like the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: DIG) -- and in the semiconductor sectors, rather than in the major equity market ETFs, such as the SPY's, Q's, or DIA's.
My technical work argues that the energy sectors are bottoming/turning, while the semiconductor group -- represented by the Semiconductor HLDRs ETF (AMEX: SMH) -- as a subset of the larger QQQQ technology sector exhibits impressive relative strength.
For those of you who are otherwise inclined to use the major equity market ETFs to participate in a recovery rally, be aware that the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY)'s have a Double Low at 68.75/80 this week, while the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQQ)'s have a "stepped up" Double Low at 26.17/52. Both major market ETFs may be putting in a significant secondary low (with Tues. post closing lows).
To the extent the Double Lows hold, the SPYs and the Qs are positioned for a very reasonable risk-reward long side opportunity... as long as the lows (give or take 1/2% break of the lows) remain intact.
Once again, if the indices push off of their lows this afternoon, all eyes will be fixated on the final hour of trading-- especially ahead of tomorrow AM's Unemployment Report at 8:30 AM ET (which will be bad, but could be disastrous). In other words, taking the positions HOME tonight will involve an entirely new level of risk tolerance and intestinal fortitude.
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