Happy New Year

by Larry Levin

All of us at AvidTrader wish you all a happy and prosperous new year!

Wall Street is saying good riddance to 2008, but that's because Wall Street believes it is owed a return with its stick your head in the sand style of investing and fought it all the way down. On the other hand, since we follow the trend, 2008 was quite profitable. What's more, we expect 2009 to be more of the same: buy & hold is dead - you must be a trader to make money.

Notice I said we are trend followers - not predictors. Predictions are useless. If you doubt me, feel free to research all of the useless claptrap from the so-called Wall Street experts at the start of 2008. Wall Street is infested with perma-bulls, which is fine when the market is going up. However, when it's suffering the mauling of the bear, they look foolish. They cannot fathom their predictions being off. In cult-like fashion they hold steadfast to their foolhardy beliefs in Keynesian economics and the Efficient Market hypothesis. All the while as information gets worse, they remain incredulous to bearish data.

Simply put, the perma-bulls ability to whistle past the graveyard is astonishing.

It won't matter how many trillions of dollars have been lost listening to these clowns - their bad market calls and overall predictions will carry on. So keep in mind that these folks didn't even see the crisis coming and ask yourself, why would I trust them for '09? They aren't basing their analysis on fundamentals or anything else but blind hope and historical statistics. Every crisis is different, which makes the prediction game less than accurate.

Oh sure, from time to time we may put out a price as to where the market could go, but this is based on the current trend whether it be short or long term. As I said above, long term predictions are useless.

Good luck in 2009!

Previous Day's Trading Room Results:

Trade Date: 12/31/08

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):

1) OTF buy @ 1:00pm at 897.00 = -1.25 (1 lot)

2) FT buy @ 1:30pm at 900.00 = +.25 (1 lot)

3) Engf sell @ 1:40pm at 901.75 = b/e (1 lot)

4) Algorithm positions (2)...combined daily total...+2.25

ZB (30 Year Bond) Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) No trades today.



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