Gold Mining ETF's Upmove Has Legs

By Mike Paulenoff

I have been watching the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) closely since its October low at 15.74 and I am very impressed with its pattern and relative strength vis-a-vis the overall market and the gold price action itself.

On Nov 3, when the GDX was at 21.48, I noted to our subscribers that I was expecting a pop to the upside out of the 3-day sideways congestion area into new recovery high ground, which projects into the 23.50-24.50 target zone, after which I would be looking for a significant pullback (under 19.00) to set up a much more potent buying opportunity.

A view of the chart today shows that that green lines I drew nearly weeks ago appear to have closely demarcated the forthcoming new recovery high followed by the deep "give-back" beneath 19.00 -- actually to 17.79. Let's notice that yesterday's low was 12% above the October low, whereas yesterday the SPY broke the October low by 2%, which represents a significant outperformance by the mining group.

In addition, provided the potent upmove from yesterday has legs -- and can claw its way above the Nov 5 high at 24.72 -- the GDX has the makings of a meaningful double bottom pattern that projects to well above 30.00 in the subsequent weeks. As long as the GDX does not break below 20.00, my work will remain constructive.

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