Needless to say, the iShares Silver ETF (AMEX: SLV) has been in the grasp of a vicious and relentless multi-month bear phase in the aftermath of a 7-month powerful advance from 11.00 to 20.73. In fact, spot silver prices have not been this low since Februay 2006 and have retraced all of the bull move from around $9 to $21.50. Compared to the weakness in gold, silver has crashed, losing 65% of its value versus 23% in gold.
Clearly, the need to deleverage and to raise cash hit the silver market much more severely than it did the gold market, which cut in half the gold/silver ratio -- no reflecting 82+ ounces of silver needed to equal the value of 1 ounce of gold. My work on the gold/silver ratio is screaming at me that silver has to appreciate vis-à-vis gold. With silver (SLV) technicals looking ripe and ready for a recovery rally period, my sense (and my work) argue strongly in favor of a long position in silver, not gold, here -- although in the final analysis silver will need both gold and the euro to reverse into uptrends sooner than later to perpetuate a sustained advance. For now, though, I want to be long for a trade towards 11.00 initially.
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