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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

As Good as It Gets (Finally)!


By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader

The markets ended with a nasty session, particularly on a late slide that closed them at the lows for the day going away.

As has been happening over the last few days, the indices gapped lower on negative futures, immediately bounced, retested and when that was successful they backed and filled and then churned higher, reaching the session highs and testing Friday afternoon's rally highs on both the NDX and S&P 500. But when they failed to punch through at mid afternoon, they sold off, bounced late in the afternoon, but couldn't get through intraday resistance, and then rolled over hard, particularly in the last 10 minutes.

Net on the day the Dow was down 203.18, the S&P 500 27.85, and the Nasdaq 100 32.49. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) managed to gain 0.24 and closed about 6 points off its low, but about 8 points off its high.

Advance-declines were 4 to 1 negative on New York and 3 1/2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was a hefty 8 to 1 negative on New York on total volume of near 1 1/3 billion. Nasdaq traded about 2 1/4 billion and had a 3 1/2 to 1 negative ratio of declining over advancing volume.

TheTechTrader.com board was mostly negative at the close. Many stocks which had rallied earlier gave it back and then some. The short instruments did very well, of course, with the DUG at 57.26 up 5.71, the QID up 3.55 to 87.70, and the SDS up 6.54 to 114.69.

Other than that, there were a few pockets of strength. One of our Charts of the Week, Broadcom (BRCM) was up 75 cents today on 22 million shares.

On the downside, Apple (AAPL) was down 4.29 to 92.09, DryShips (DRYS) at 14.63 down 2.26, as shippers continued under pressure. Excel Maritime (EXM) at 9.82 was down 1.29, Potash (POT) which got as high as 71.46 closed at 63.88 down 4.64, a negative reversal there.

SunPower (SPWR) in the solar energy sector at 34.68 was down 5.12. Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) at 28.38 down 2.11.

Agriculture stocks suffered today, with Agrium (AGU) down 2.17, Mosaic (MOS) 1.28 and POT as noted earlier.

Other losses of note, Morgan Stanley (MS) got hammered, as financials had a terrible day, closing at 13.73, down 2.79. Citibank (C) at 11.73 was down 41 cents on 114 million shares, closing at a new 12-year low.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices had backed and filled in the morning, tried to break out in the afternoon, but failed at overhead resistance, and then rolled over hard into the close, taking out key support and closing at the lows for the day going away.

The market is now set up for a very negative day tomorrow. We'll see if they can stem the tide, but it looks pretty ominous, particularly on the S&P 500 and Dow.

Good trading!

Harry

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