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Friday, September 19, 2008

Stellar Follow UP Session!

By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader

The markets had a huge follow-up session and a very important one technically, as the indices gapped very sharply higher at the opening. The NDX reached its highs for the day right at the get-go. Later in the session the SPX did make a nominal new high, but basically the indices backed and filled in a 4-wave session in bullish consolidative fashion. So they did a very good job of not giving back anything, and from a technical perspective they hit certain levels of resistance that were key. They did back off those levels, but then consolidated nicely just underneath those levels, and are now set up for continuing this rally, perhaps after some further digestion and backing and filling, but a very constructive session indeed!

Net on the day the Dow was up nearly 370, the S&P 500 up 48, and the Nasdaq 100 just under 48. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up 6.20.

Advance-declines were a VERY strong 28 to 4 positive on New York and a little less than 4 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 25 to 4 positive on New York on total volume of just under 3 billion. Nasdaq traded just under 4 billion and had a ratio of a little less than 4 to 1 positive on advancing over declining volume.

Many stocks on TheTechTrader.com board had monster gains. Leading the way today was Goldman Sachs (GS), which was up 21.80 to 129.80. Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), which was one of our stocks to watch this morning, jumped to 69.14, up 9.87. Fuel System Solutions (FSYS) at 51.43 was up 5.28, and Morgan Stanley (MS) jumped to 27.21 up 4.66. The USO on the snapback in oil jumped 3.80 today.

Solar energy stocks did well, with Sunpower ( SPWR ) up 7.88,Canadian Solar (CSIQ) 1.45, JASO 1.99, and Solarfun (SOLF) 91 cents.

Chart of the Week Trex (TWP) snapped back smartly, closing at 19.02, up 1.87. Portfolio position GB at 26.27 was up 1.38, tagging 27.08, a new 52 week high.

Shippers did well, with DryShips (DRYS) up 5.97. We added that to our portfolio today. And Excel Maritime (EXM) was up 2.93 to 23.46.

Brigham Exploration (BEXP) in the junior oil sector had a great day, up 1.32 to 14.50, and Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) snapped back 1.14 to 16.90. A-Power Energy (APWR), former portfolio position, was up 1.70 to 13.75.

The DUG had a really bad session, down 6.23 to 35.01, as oil snapped back more than 5 today. The QID was down 2.40, and the SDS 5.85, as would be expected on another strong day.

It was a very difficult session today for ABK, which ran as high as 8.59 this morning and closed at 3.87, down 2.80, a huge negative reversal on volume of 61 million shares.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the overall structure of the pattern is very bullish and definitely indicates that an important low is in. We could test lower levels, but we have a very nice structure set up. Overhead resistance is at today's highs up around 1770-75 NDX, and 1260-65 zone on the SPX. A breakout above those levels could lead to a very strong extension of the rally, and we expect that may occur.

Good trading!

Harry

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