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Sunday, September 7, 2008

Dramatic Friday Turnaround Rally

By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader

The indices staged a dramatic turnaround rally, with the Dow and S&P 500, in particular, stronger than Nasdaq today and managing to get back into the plus column after some steep early losses extended the four-day decline into Friday morning.

The day started out with a gap down. They bounced, but failed to follow through, and then sold off steadily until about just after 11, at which time they reached their lows for the day and the week. A strong turnaround pop lasted until early afternoon. They pulled back and retested, but held intraday price and moving average support and then came on again and reached new highs. Late in the session the SPX reached secondary resistance up around 1245, but the NDX failed to follow through and in the last 5 minutes or so they sold off, with the NDX slipping back into negative territory .

Net on the day the Dow ended up 32 3/4 and the S&P 500 up 5 1/2, although the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.55. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) had a very solid day, up for most of the session, even in the early part, closing up 7.21, or about 2 1/2 percent.

The technicals managed to just edge into the plus column on advance-declines on New York by 60 issues, but were still negative on Nasdaq by 240 issues. Up/down volume was about 3 to 2 positive on New York on total volume of under 1.2 billion. Nasdaq traded more than 2.3 billion and had just a slight negative ratio of declining over advancing volume.

As a result of all this action, many stocks on TheTechTrader.com board had sharp early losses followed by dramatic reversals, and many went back into the plus column. Leading the way was Focus Media (FMCN), which dropped down as low as 27.42 and snapped back over 30, closing at 29.95, up 2.11 on 3.1 million, a nice reversal day there.

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) also had a solid 4 1/2 point reversal, closing up 1.63 on the day after being down several points, finishing at 66.27 on more than 3 million shares.

The other point-plus gainer on our board was Lehman Bros.(LEH), closing at 16.20, up 1.03 on 42.6 million.

Other gainers of note, Converted Orgainics (COIN), which we added to our portfolio this morning at around 5.20, had a strong snapback session, particularly late in the day when it jumped past 6, closing at 6.24, up 51 cents, but more than 1.10 off its earlier low, a nice percentage move. Fannie Mae (FNM) also had a strong snapback, from 6.05 to 7.18, closing at 7.04, up 62 cents, on just under 74 million shares traded.

Sequenom (SQNM), a portfolio position, snapped back from its 22 low to 23.96, closing at 23.60, up 70 cents on 1.8 million, and UAUA also reversed a little over 1, closing up 38 cents on the day on nearly 19 million shares.

JA Solar (JASO) in the solar group was up 87 cents, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) managed to close up 27 cents, but that was about 2 1/4 off its low, so a very positive reversal there. Low-priced Emcore (EMKR) jumped 80 cents off its low, closing up 31 cents on the day at 6.13, on 1.7 million.

On the downside, point-plus losers included Fuel System Solutiosn (FSYS), which was down 1.24, but 4 1/2 off its low, so a very big comeback there as well. VISN at 17.32 was down 1.01, and TWP at 1910 down 2.13. The USO was down 1.02 on the drop in oil, and as a result the DUG gained 41 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices had a sharp decline lasting into its 4th day and reaching as low as 1740 NDX and 1217 SPX, which is right near Fib retracement as well and Elliott Wave support levels. I wasn't surprised to see the rally, but I was pleased the SPX and Dow in particular came way off their lows and close solidly on the session. We'll see if we can get an upside follow-through next week, but definitely a nice way to close the week after some ugly sessions in the prior three days.

Good trading!

Harry

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