Retail Sales

by Larry Levin

Markets received a much needed booster shot this morning with the release of the retail sales data. Upon closer examination, however, it may be placebo!

Retail sales data released this morning showed a surprising 1% jump at the retail counters across America . This was good news to the market as it showed the consumer is still spending every penny they earn. With this news, the Dow exploded out of the gates +170-points, but finished like Big Brown.

Closer examination of the data, however, can yield a different conclusion. According to the report, sales were boosted by higher gasoline and food prices and by extreme gains at building materials stores and furniture stores. Said another way, retail sales were higher due to INFLATION! Is this actually good news for equities? The bond market didn't think so: it tanked, again.

Here is some other not-so-bullish news that hit the tape today

- The MSFT/Yahoo merger was called off.

- Oil was down but couldn't be knocked out: It rallied $5 from its low.

- Philly Fed President Charles Plosser called for a quick rate hike to combat inflation pressures.

- The 30-YR bonds were hammered again, increasing rates.

- The Labor Department said jobless claims rose 25,000 to 384,000.

Although the laundry list of bad news continues unabated, the market can't go down forever" right?

Real Time Trading Signals*for

Trade Date: 6/12/08

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):

1) FT sell @ 8:45am at 1350.50 = -2.00*2

2) OTF buy @ 10:45am at 1352.00 = -2.00 (1 lot)

3) OTF sell @ 11:30am at 1352.75 = +3.00 (1 lot)

4) Algorithm trades (0)combined total-3.00

E-Mini Russell Trades*
(before fees and commissions):

1) No ER trades today.


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