by Larry Levin
Oh my goodness - today was a real snoozer. The S&P 500 total range for the day was not even 10-points! It seems that Mr. Market has put his cousin, Volatility, in the closet and won't let him out. But Volatility doesn't like to be held in one spot for too long; no matter where he's being held he will break loose. Will that be tomorrow?
The news continues to flow from the bearish side of the ledger - pilling up into a neat pile of brushwood. Since Volatility is locked in the closet, however, all of this news goes unnoticed. Or is it just being ignored? I think if there is even a hint of good news tomorrow, or perhaps Thursday, the market will light a match to that brushwood of negative news and take off to the 1410.00 area. The problem is the bad news just isn't stopping.
Last night we were told that Alcoa's profit plummeted by 50% last quarter, yet its stock retreated just 0.7% today. Wow, that's good business if you can get it, eh?
Now AMD tells us things are bad in the chip sector. Because of this, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 2% at the open. Late this afternoon AMD announced that it was cutting its workforce by 10% and was projecting first-quarter revenue of $1.5 billion, which is a 15% decline from the fourth quarter of 2007.
The National Association of Realtors reported its index of sales contracts on previously owned homes fell 1.9% in February to 84.6, the lowest since the gauge's inception.
WaMu will lose $1.1-billion this quarter.
But the market was really waiting for the Fed's minutes to be released this afternoon. We discover that when the superhero's of the FOMC met, they found out that its staff had bad news...they were slashing growth forecasts for 2008. For the first time, the forecast showed an actual "contraction" in the first six months of the year, with only "a slow rise" in the second half.
"The minutes of the 18 March FOMC meeting painted a more pessimistic view of the economy than the smaller-than-consensus 75 basis point rate cut ... suggested," said Lehman Brothers economists in a note to clients.
The worrisome growth outlook seems to have gotten the FOMC's attention. However, some Fed members warned that the staff projections might still be too rosy. "Some believed that a prolonged and severe economic downturn could not be ruled out given the further restriction of credit availability and ongoing weakness in the housing markets," according to the summary.
Real Time Trading Signals*for
Trade Date: 4/8/08
E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):
1) B/away sell @ 8:35am at 1364.75 = -1.50 & -1.50
2) Engf buy @ 8:45am at 1365.50 = +1.00 & b/e
3) TP sell @ 9:25am at 1368.75 = -2.00 & -2.00
4) OTF buy @ 10:40am at 1368.00 = b/e & b/e
5) FT sell @ 1:40pm at 1365.75 = +1.00 & -1.00
6) IDVA buy @ 2:10pm at 1365.00 = +1.00 (1 lot)
7) Engf sell @ 2:25pm at 1365.75 = b/e (1 lot)...-5.00
E-Mini Russell Trades*
(before fees and commissions):
1) No ER trades today.
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