Testimony Day #2

by Larry Levin
The market was mostly range bound again today but managed to close a little higher. Traders remained mostly on the sidelines today - nervous again as Bernanke and the SEC chairman answered questions on why the Fed intervened to prevent investment firm Bear Stearns from declaring bankruptcy. And there wasn’t much reason to put on large positions today when the monthly jobs data will be released early tomorrow.

If the weekly state unemployment data is a good barometer for tomorrow's jobs data, it may be bearish.

Claims for the week ended March 29 rose by 38,000 to reach 407,000, which is the worst level for weekly claims since mid-September 2005. The four-week average of initial claims also rose, increasing by 15,750 to 374,500, and thus hit its worst level since the beginning of October 2005. Economists see readings consistently higher than 350,000 as signaling significant weakening in the labor market.

Continuing jobless claims were also elevated in the latest week. For the week ended March 22, continuing claims rose by 97,000 to 2.94 million...the highest since the middle of July 2004.

But there was good news...I guess. Stock indexes reversed losses after the ISM services data was released, which showed the non-manufacturing index at 49.6% in March. Any reading below 50.0% is contraction. Said another way, this contraction is just more proof of a coming recession. This was, however, better than forecast so the market raced higher from the early low.

No matter what the news was today it would still have paled in comparison to what "could" happen tomorrow. It will be very important.

Real Time Trading Signals*for

Trade Date: 4/3/08

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) B/away sell @ 8:35am at 1362.00 = -1.75 (1 lot)

2) FT sell @ 10:05am at 1363.50 = -2.00 & -2.00

3) OTF sell @ 10:35am at 1366.75 = b/e (1 lot

4) FT buy @ 12:35pm at 1375.00 = -1.50 (1 lot)

5) OTF buy @ 1:00pm at 1372.50 = -1.50 (1 lot) )...-8.75

E-Mini Russell Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) No ER trades today


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