What Happened?

by Larry Levin

What happened? How did the Dow reverse 293-points lower today? I wonder because, according to yesterday's hoopla on TV and in the press, it was all smooth sailing from here. It would forever again be sunshine & puppies on Wall Street...or sugar & spice if you like.

I always find it humorous when Wall Street proclaims a trend-reversal...after just one day in the opposite direction. The talking heads were at it again today, but in another market. They were proclaiming a trend reversal in the US dollar after a 2-day mini-pop.

"Let it not be said that things have calmed down in the market. While Wednesday was not the most stressful day on the recent record, volatility remains the constant theme," said David Ader, U.S. government bond strategist, RBS Greenwich Capital.

Today's volatility was due to the wreckage in commodities. The ruble was widespread with beans and grains limit down, but gold, silver and oil were mauled the worst. From my vantage point the selling seemed to begin in the metals, then spread to the other markets. No doubt this caused HUGE margin calls that led to further selling.

And of course when the actual commodity is getting crushed, stocks and ETF’s that track commodities get slammed as well. Not surprisingly, Chevron and Exxon Mobile led the Dow Industrials lower.

Real Time Trading Signals*for

Trade Date: 3/19/08

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):

1) B/away buy @ 8:35am at 1339.00 = +2.00 & -2.00

2) Engf buy @ 8:40am at 1339.00 = b/e (1 lot)

3) Engf buy @ 9:20am at 1335.25 = -2.50 & -2.50

4) OTF sell @ 10:00am at 1333.00 = -1.75 & -1.75

5) FT sell @ 1:45pm at 1311.00 = b/e & -2.00

6) VA sell @ 2:05pm at 1320.50 = +2.25 (1 lot)...-8.25 points

E-Mini Russell Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) Sell @ 9:51am at 683.9 = +.3 & -.3

2) Buy @ 10:31am at 684.0 = +1.0 (1 lot)

3) Sell @ 11:10am at 682.6 = +2.3 (1 lot)

4) Buy @ 12:25pm at 677.8 = -1.1 (1 lot)...+$220


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