Jobs report on tap

by Larry Levin


There were fewer fireworks in the pit today than yesterday. In fact, there were several stretches of the day that were outright boring. What’s happening is that many money managers and traders are waiting on tomorrow’s monthly jobs data. Oh sure, a few minor reports were released today, but they are hardly worth mentioning. The nonfarm payroll information is the biggie, with some forecasting a reading of 58,000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.8%. We’ll know for sure 7:30am tomorrow morning.

The market waits on this report because of the inherit link between employment and consumer spending. A slowdown in consumer spending fearful of losing their jobs, or out of work and unable to find a new job, would be another heavy hit to the economy. The continuing commodity price spike, which will lead to higher gasoline and home heating oil prices, should temper spending for most consumers whether they are employed or not. This could spark a solid trend down for a while, although this has not happened yet. After all, the jobs data could be very good and create a nice rally. Either way, I’ll follow the trend.

In other news, oil traded above $100.00-barrel again and Bank of America downgraded the semiconductor sector. This bearish pressure took the market off its high, creating a decent downtrend this afternoon.

There is another important report tomorrow: ISM Services data. Expectations for this report are a reading of 53.8%. Remember, a reading under 50.0% equals contraction in that sector, like yesterday’s manufacturing data of 47.7%. I failed to mention something yesterday when I was writing about that ISM data: two consecutive readings of 45.0 or less means we are in a recession. That is certainly not a widely held belief, but it called the mini-recession of 2001-2002 perfectly.

Real Time Trading Signals*for

Trade Date: 1/03/08

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):

9:16 FT Buy 60.25 = -1.00 all

9:41 ID VA Buy 56.75 = +.75, b/e

1:13 FT Sell 8.25 = -1.00 all

1:33 OTF Sell 9.50 = +.75, +1.25, +2.00

2:42 FT Sell 4.75 = +.75, b/e

E-Mini Russell Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) Buy @ 8:39am at 759.8 = -1.0 (1 lot)

2) Sell @ 8:52am at 757.8 = +.5, +1.0, -1.0

3) Buy @ 9:02am at 758.5 = +.5, +1.0, +1.8

4) Buy @ 9:14am at 760.8 = -.5 (1 lot)

5) Sell @ 9:33am at 758.8 = +.5, +1.0, +2.2

6) Sell @ 9:46am at 757.6 = +.3 & +.8

7) Sell @ 10:11am at 759.0 = +.5 & +1.5

8) Sell @ 10:26am at 758.3 = b/e & +1.4

9) Sell @ 10:40am at 757.8 = -1.3 (1 lot)

10) Buy @ 11:36am at 759.2 = -.5 (1 lot)

11) Buy @ 11:42am at 757.9 = b/e (1 lot)

12) Sell @ 12:29pm at 754.8 = +.5 & +2.5

13) Sell @ 1:13pm at 753.2 = -.5 (1 lot)

14) Sell @ 1:49pm at 753.6 = +.5 & +.5

15) Sell @ 1:59pm at 753.2 = +.2 & +4.4

16) Sell @ 2:55pm at 748.7 = +.5 & +1.2

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