"I'll be back"... And other phrases.

by Larry Levin

I heard a comment on the way to the pit today that reminded me of a famous phrase from the movies: "I'll be back" Of course this is Arnold Schwarzenegger's famous line from The Terminator. When the Terminator said something like "I'll be back", you could count on it to be done. In the business world, however, "not so much" is often appropriate. Sometimes these phrases are funny, and other times they are flat out wrong.

"The housing slowdown is contained." (Loosely quoted) - Alan Greenspan (Not even close)

"I know what I don't know. To this day, I don't know technology, and I don't know finance or technology." - CEO of WorldCom, Bernie Ebbers

"The Fact that our economical models at The Fed, the best in the world, have been wrong for fourteen straight quarters, does not mean they will not be right in the fifteenth quarter" - Alan Greenspan (I sure am glad we rely on it so much)

"The housing slowdown is contained." (Loosely quoted) – Ben Bernanke (Not even close)

"The worst is behind Countrywide." - CEO Anthony Mozillo, Countrywide Financial Sept. 2007 (Not quite Tony)

"Some things work, some things don't.' - Jeff Skilling, Enron (He didn’t say this to a shareholder, did he?)

"There is no other shoe to drop" (on Jeff Skilling's resignation) - CEO Ken Lay, Enron Nov. 5th 2001 (Way off there, Kenny-boy)

"It's completely meaningless. I am saying if every loan in 2006 that was sub-prime blew up, $500-billion, if they all blew up, you would still not notice (an affect to the market)...It has NO RELEVANCE whatsoever." - Jim Cramer 3-weeks before the CNBC rant about the Fed (He couldn't have been more wrong.)

All of these business guffaws (and more) came flowing back to me when I read the following: "We have established a robust capital position; one that is able to withstand things that go bump in the night." - CFO Chuck Chaplin of MBIA Jan. 31st 2008.

Such a flippant comment made me think of the horribly wrong calls you just read above. Hmmm, I wonder if Mr. Chaplin's comment will reach the same outcome as the others. Since I'm just a local at the Merc, I have no idea...but I found who might.

Standard & Poor's stripped bond insurer Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. of its key AAA rating today and warned it could take similar action against insurance units of industry leader MBIA Inc. (MBI). WHAT? I thought MBIA was safe from 'things that go bump in the night?'

"Although MBIA has succeeded in accessing $1.5 billion of additional capital, the magnitude of projected losses underscores our view that time is of the essence in the completion of capital-raising efforts...In our opinion, the current plan does not fully address projected losses," S&P said today. "The company's ability to access additional capital resources is uncertain."

The next bump in the night Mr. Chaplin hears may be more of a thump...as MBIA’s shares plummet to terra-firma.

Real Time Trading Signals*for

Trade Date: 1/31/08

E-Mini S&P Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


8:31 b/a sell 4.50 = +.75, -1.00

9:40 md buy 5.25 = +.75, +1.50, +.50

10:01 va buy 50.50= +.75, -1.50

1:00 ft buy 8:00 = +.75, +2.00, b/e

1:30 ft buy 1.50 = -1.50 all

1:50 va sell 3.50 = +.75, -1.50

1:59 md buy 72.00= +.75, +1.50,+2.75

E-Mini Russell Trades*
(before fees and commissions):


1) Buy @ 9:08am at 693.4 = +4.5 (1 lot)

2) Buy @ 9:35am at 696.0 = -1.2 (1 lot)

3) Sell @ 9:45am at 695.1 = -.8 (1 lot)

4) Buy @ 10:07am at 699.9 = -.6 (1 lot)

5) Sell @ 11:56am at 704.7 = -.8 & b/e

6) Buy @ 1:15pm at 710.0 = +.5 (1 lot)

7) Buy @ 1:32pm at 711.0 = +1.0 (1 lot)

8) Buy @ 1:51pm at 712.4 = -.8 & -.8…+$100.00


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